It’s one of those weekends where the national team and all four provinces are in action which certainly gives rugby article writers plenty to scribble about!

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Obviously from an Irish standpoint the big match is at the Aviva Stadium on Saturday at lunchtime where Declan Kidney’s men will aim to get their stuttering Six Nations campaign back on track as they welcome the Italians.

The coach has come in for a lot of stick for his team selections this time round, some of it from me, but I’m willing to give him a pass for this particular match. Pretty much all the criticisms of his conservative nature have been made already, and I don’t really see the need to go over them all again.

The fact remains – the match day 22 that has been chosen to start this weekend is the very one he originally wanted to go with into this competition, and for one reason or another he was denied on two occasions. So with the big trip to Paris added to the schedule for next week, I can’t really blame him for wanting to have a look at them play together this weekend.

Although Ireland have done little to make the Aviva Stadium a “fortress” since it opened, home field advantage plus their recent record against Italy must certainly make them favourites to come out on top, though no doubt Kidney’s critics will also be looking for an impressive performance to go along with it.

For me, the key to Ireland’s success on Saturday has to stem from grabbing the game by the scruff of the neck in the first quarter. Italy under new coach Jacques Brunel have shown a willingness to pass the ball far more often than they have in previous Six Nations campaigns, and in opting for Treviso’s Tobias Botes to play at outhalf ahead of Kris Burton, it would seem this will continue.

If this is the case then Ireland should have the opportunity to impose itself in the forwards more than they ever have against this opposition, and if Paul O’Connell & co can provide enough front foot ball early on, they need to make the most of it, for if the scores are still close on the 60 minute mark, Sergio Parisse and his back row will certainly do all they can to grind out what would be a famous victory.

In the Ireland starting lineup all eyes will be on two players in particular. Jonathan Sexton came under much criticism for his performance with the boot against Wales and definitely needs to repay the faith his coach has shown in him on Saturday. If the forwards can provide him with the quality of ball I outlined above, hopefully his Heineken Cup form can surface and allow him to make the right decisions when it counts.

Then we have the oft-mentioned outside centre position. Right or wrong, Keith Earls was the coach’s choice to fill that famous Irish jersey and this will be his first competitive chance to show what he can do with it at Test level. With the ball, I expect him to show the strong line-breaking ability he does whatever his position. As I have written before, my primary concern will be on defence, and his young opposite number Benvenuti has also made a transition to the centre from wing and will surely test the Munster man.

Overall I can’t see anything but an Irish victory, though with the France match around the corner and a six-day turnaround after that before facing the Scots, I doubt it will be an absolute blowout so I’m going for a home win by two converted tries.

As for the Irish provinces, despite the clash with the Test matches all four of them are in significant tussles for different reasons.

Munster will be looking to capitalise on their last bonus-point try in Treviso last Friday by putting the Cardiff Blues to the sword, though the visitors are still clearly in the hunt for a top-four finish.

Felix Jones starts at Thomond for the first time since his injury while Simon Zebo will hope to add to his try-scoring streak. On the Cardiff side Munster-bound Casey Laulala sits it out with a very suspicious “slight injury” sustained last week against Ulster. Still there’s plenty of talent for the visitors with Parks, Williams & Molitika all able to do damage.

Also on Friday evening Ulster entertains the Ospreys and they definitely need a win of some description to keep them in contention. And with Bryan McLaughlin opting for what would be my personal choice of halfback pairing in Marshall at 9 and Pienaar at 10, they may just get it done.

Meanwhile over in Galway there’s a fixture that no doubt was on Coach Eric Elwood’s radar from the moment it was announced – both Connacht and Edinburgh may be at the wrong end of the Pro12 table but the prospect of Michael Bradley leading his team back to the Sportsground definitely adds an extra dimension to this one!

And finally there’s table-toppers Leinster who face the Glasgow Warriors on Saturday for the fourth time this season. Although Joe Schmidt’s men had the better of them in the Heineken Cup, they’ve struggled to get Celtic League points from Firhill over the year and even succumbed to them for their last defeat in all competitions back in September.

Dominic Ryan makes his first start in a while and also returning from injury is pacy back-three youngster Andrew Conway who is on the bench. At outhalf Ian Madigan will be looking to come out on top against his young counterpart Ruaridh Jackson and once more the upcoming centre pairing of Colm O’Shea and Brendan Macken lineout for Leinster.

Which leads me to my predictions: In the Six Nations, I have already said Ireland by fourteen, while Wales may not have things all their own way at Twickenham though still should clinch the Triple Crown, and France should come out on top on Sunday against a Scottish outfit struggling for tries.

In the Pro 12, unfortunately I see Leinster’s impressive run coming to an end in Glasgow though the other three provinces should prevail, if narrowly in each case. Elsewhere the Scarlets toppled Treviso on Thursday night to stay in contention while I expect Aironi to gain a rare victory over the visiting Dragons in Viadana on Sunday.

That’s it for me this week…enjoy your rugby wherever you are, and in whatever competition it may be-there’s also Super Rugby action added back to the morning schedules this weekend! I’ll be back here next week where I’ll have a second go at predicting how we’ll do in Paris. Hopefully Saturday’s display will allow me put a more positive slant on it! JLP

You can read my blog at http://www.harpinonrugby.net/

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