Updated Betting on the 2020 Irish general election

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We have updating Irish general election betting after the exit poll and it looks like FG will do a lot better than betting had suggested.

We know Elections are not quite a sport, but they certainly have most of the characteristics.

High profile candidates unlikely to get elected.

Shane Ross, Joan Burton,  Katerine Zappone, Eoghan Murphy or Kate O’Connell, Peter Casey, Saoirse McHugh, Noel Rock, Mary Hanifin, Catherine Connolly, James Reilly.

 

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Most Seats 

Fianna Fail was 8/11(14th Jan) moved to 2/9 (19th Jan) then 1/10 (5th Feb) Now 1/5 (Sunday 9th)

Fine Gael was EVS (14th Jan) moved to 11/4 (19th Jan) then 7/1 (5th Feb) Now 7/2 (Sunday 9th)

Sinn Fein was 50/1 (14th Jan) stayed at 50/1 (19th Jan) then 10/1 (5th Feb) Now 16/1 (Sunday 9th)

Taoiseach After Next Election

Micheal Martin was 4/6 (14th Jan) moved to 1/6 (19th Jan) then 1/12 (5th Feb) now 1/7 (Sunday 9th)

Leo Varadkar was 11/10 (14th Jan) moved to 7/2 (19th Jan) then 8/1 (5th Feb) now 4/1 (Sunday 9th)

Mary Lou McDonald 50/1 (14th Jan) moved to 66/1 (19th Jan) then 10/1 (5th Feb) Now 20/1 (Sunday 9th)

Government After Next Election (must have at least 1 Minister to be considered part of government)

FF/SD/Lab/Green was 5/1 (14th Jan)  moved to 6/1 (19th Jan) then 16/1 (5th Feb) now 10/1 (Sunday 9th)

FG/Lab/SD/Green was 6/1 (14th Jan) moved to 10/1 (19th Jan) then 33/1 (5th Feb) still 33/1 (Sunday 9th)

Fine Gael/Fianna Fail was 7/1 (14th Jan)moved to 14/1 (19th Jan) then 6/1 (5th Feb) still 6/1 (Sunday 9th)

Fianna Fail/Green was 8/1 (14th Jan) moved 5/1 (19th Jan) then 9/1 (5th Feb) now 14/1 (Sunday 9th)

Fine Gael/Independents was 9/1 (14th Jan) moved to 16/1 (19th Jan) then 50/1 still 50/1 (Sunday 9th)

Fianna Fail/Independents was 10/1 (14th Jan) now 8/1 (19th Jan) now 14/1 then 14/1 (Sunday 9th)

Fine Gael/Green was 10/1 (14th Jan) now 12/1 (19th Jan) now 40/1 still 40/1 (Sunday 9th)

Fianna Fail/Sinn Fein was 12/1 (14th Jan) moved to 10/1 (19th Jan) now 4/1 (5th Feb) still 4/1 (Sunday 9th)

FF/Green/independents was 40/1 (14th Jan) moved to 20/1 (19th Jan) then 10/1 (5th Feb) now 4/1 (Sunday 9th Feb)

FF/Lab/Green/Independents was 33/1 (14th Jan) moved to 16/1 (19th Jan) then 12/1 5th Feb) now 11/1 (Sunday 9th)

All other options over 20/1

Fine Gael Seats

Under/Over (+49.5) 5/6 (14th Jan) moved to  (+42.5) at 5/6 (19th Jan) moved to (+35.5) (5th Feb) now it’s (38.5) on Sunday 9th Feb

 

Fianna Fail Seats

Under/Over (+50.5) 5/6 (14th Jan) moved to 58.5 (19th Jan) now 52.5 (5th Feb) now it’s 48.5 on (Sunday 9th Feb)

Labour 1st Seats

Under/Over (+9.5) 5/6 (14th Jan) moved to 7.5 (19th Jan) now 5.5 (5th Feb) still 5.5 (Sunday 9th Feb)

Green Party  Seats

Over (+9.5) 5/6 (14th Jan) moved to 10.5 (19th Jan) now 10/5 (5th Feb) now it’s 9.5 on (Sunday 9th Feb)

Sinn Fein Seats

Over (+18.5) 5/6 (14th Jan) move to 22.5 (19th Jan) now 28.5 (5th Feb) now it’s 34.5 (Sunday 9th Feb)

Voter Turnout

Under/Over 65.5% 5/6

 

 

 

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