Hurdle Stats and Trends Guide

Our Stats expert Brian Cooney has been taking a look at Saturdays Hurdle at Leopardstown:

Stats and Trends Guide

The hurdle is a race steeped in history. The race originated back in 1969 and has been transformed throughout the years. The current day race as we now know it began in 2001 when it became the Pierse Hurdle. Still referred to The Pierse by many, the race became the MCR Hurdle and now the Hurdle.

The most striking trend shows the majority of winners to be lightly raced, well handicapped horses.

Being a competitive handicap we will begin to look at the weights and official ratings.
Top weights have a bad record here over the last 10 years and horses rated 127+ have only managed to fill 4 places from 39 runners. With the exception of Adamant Approach in 2002 who carried 11-1 (OR of 117), the remaining winners (last 9) carried 10-11 or less.
This year, due to Staying Article carrying top weight off 139, there are a number of horses who are carrying weight within the trends but whose official rating is outside the trends.
5yo’s also get a 2lb allowance which does not make this any easier.
For now, I will remove the following from a list of possible winners
· Staying Article
· Sweet My Lord
· Cass Bligh
· Plan A
· Blazing Tempo
· Tawaag
The remaining 5 horses carry 10-11 or less but are rated 127-130.
Out of these Zaarito, being a 10yo, can be excluded but we will keep Flycorn, Little Green, Mister Carter and Make A Track.

Next we will look at some other strong trends. The last 10 winners:
· Were 2nd season hurdlers.
· Had run no more than 4 times that season
· Had run between 3 and 9 hurdles
· Had run in no more than 5 handicap hurdles (8/10 had yet to win a handicap hurdle)
We are now left with the following shortlist of the possible list of winners:
· Mister Carter
· Quiscover Fontaine (2nd season hurdler even though novice season was a few years ago)
· What A Charm
· Scottish Boogie
· Temlett (2nd season hurdler even though novice season was a few years ago)

Then to narrow down further:
· 9/10 had won or placed in their most recent run
· 9/10 were priced between 5/1 and 16/1
· 8/10 had not won a handicap hurdle
Temlett and What A Charm both won handicaps.
Master Carter 33/1 is outside the price trends and technically unplaced lto (last years winner was unplaced in previous race)
This leaves 2 against the field.
Quiscover Fontaine who runs for Willie Mullins. Willie saddled the 1-2 last year and 2-3-4 the previous year so he knows how to ready one for this. Currently priced 20/1 he is outside the price trends but this one could be supported on the day. Being one of 3 JP horses and coming from the Mullins stable, chances are this one won’t be found wanting in the saddle.
Scottish Boogie is the current favourite and this one can make it 2 in 2 years for the 5yo’s. Being from the Byrnes stable, it may be worth taking the value now.
Quiscover Fontaine e/w @ 25/1 (Boylesports) and Scottish Boogie e/w @ 6\1 (William hill).


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