The knockout stages of the EPCR Challenge Cup arrive this weekend, with Connacht Rugby welcoming Cardiff Rugby to The Sportsground on Saturday night (8pm). For Connacht, this is now their biggest game of the season after their URC play-off hopes were dashed. For Cardiff, it’s a chance to rescue a difficult year and cause an upset on the road.

Form Guide

Connacht suffered a disappointing 24-30 URC defeat to Munster last weekend in Castlebar, a result that officially ended their play-off ambitions. However, they dominated the pool stages of the Challenge Cup, winning all four matches, including a 28-19 away win over Cardiff in Round 4.

Cardiff, meanwhile, arrive in Galway after a narrow 20-19 defeat to Benetton Rugby in Italy last weekend. They qualified for the knockouts as the 16th seed, with just one win in the pool stages, but will take confidence from how close they pushed Connacht earlier this season. They were having an injury crisis at the time and should be stronger on Saturday.

Previous Meeting

The sides last met in Round 4 of the Challenge Cup pool stages, where Connacht emerged with a 28-19 victory at Cardiff Arms Park.

Head-to-Head Europe Averages 2024/25

Top Performers In Europe This Season

Connacht Rugby

• Top Points: Chay Mullins (20)
• Top Metres: Santiago Cordero (326)
• Top Carries: Santiago Cordero (50)
• Top Tackles: Paul Boyle (44)
• Top Tries: Chay Mullins (4)
• Top Turnovers Won: Shamus Hurley-Langton, Josh Murphy (2 each)

Cardiff Rugby

• Top Points: Josh Adams (15)
• Top Metres: Josh Adams (120)
• Top Carries: Alun Lawrence (35)
• Top Tackles: Teddy Williams (68)
• Top Tries: Josh Adams (3)
• Top Turnovers Won: Rey Lee-Lo (5)

Predicted Team News

Connacht have to freshen up their line-up following the Munster defeat, handing starts to Shayne Bolton, Matthew Devine need to start, with JJ coming in at ten. 

Predicted Connacht Rugby Starting XV

• 1. Jordan Duggan
• 2. Dave Heffernan
• 3. Finlay Bealham
• 4. Joe Joyce
• 5. Darragh Murray
• 6. Josh Murphy
• 7. Shamus Hurley-Langton
• 8. Sean Jansen
• 9. Matthew Devine
• 10. JJ Hanrahan
• 11. Finn Treacy
• 12. Bundee Aki
• 13. Hugh Gavin
• 14. Shayne Bolton
• 15. Mack Hansen

Replacements

• 16. Dylan Tierney-Martin
• 17. Denis Buckley
• 18. Jack Aungier
• 19. Niall Murray/ Oisin Dowling
• 20. Paul Boyle
• 21. Ben Murphy/Caolin Blade
• 22. Josh Ioane/Cathal Forde/David Hawkshaw
• 23. Piers O’Conor

What’s at Stake

Connacht enter as the No.1 seed after an unbeaten pool campaign. Victory will guarantee them a home quarter-final against either Racing 92 or Perpignan.

Cardiff, seeded 16th, will travel to Galway as underdogs but will look to make life uncomfortable for Connacht — as they did in the pool stages.

Match Facts

• Connacht average the most carries (144) and metres (518.2) per game in the competition.
• They also lead the tournament in successful 22m entries (9.5 per game).
• Cardiff made the most tackles (646) in the pool stages and are one of only three sides yet to receive a card.
• Cardiff’s Rey Lee-Lo leads the competition in turnovers won (5).

Verdict

The statistics heavily favour Connacht, who have been far more consistent and dynamic in attack this season. Cardiff’s defensive resilience and breakdown threat could trouble the hosts, but the quality and depth of Connacht’s squad — especially at home — should see them through.

Prediction: Connacht by 10+

A record-breaking crowd of 27,500 packed into Hastings Insurance MacHale Park last Saturday night, hopeful of witnessing Connacht Rugby land a statement win over Munster. Instead, they left deflated, as Connacht suffered a 24-30 defeat, a result that officially ended their URC play-off hopes in front of their biggest-ever home crowd.

Off the field the day was a celebration of rugby in the west of Ireland but on the field it became another chapter in a frustrating, inconsistent season.

But while the URC dream is gone, Connacht’s season is far from finished.

This Saturday, Connacht face Cardiff at The Sportsground in the Challenge Cup Last 16 — a knockout clash that now defines their year. Win, and Connacht will host a European quarter-final against Racing 92 or Perpignan. Lose, and the season is over.

That’s why selection this week is crucial. Connacht need to change the formula. They can’t keep rolling out the same players who look mentally and physically drained. It’s time to freshen things up, back the wider squad, and give the fans something to believe in.

The Connacht XV I’d Start Against Cardiff

Here’s the team I would select — a side built on freshness, form, and hunger:

Starting XV

• 1. Peter Dooley
• 2. Dave Heffernan
• 3. Finlay Bealham
• 4. Joe Joyce
• 5. Niall Murray
• 6. Josh Murphy
• 7. Shamus Hurley-Langton
• 8. Sean Jansen
• 9. Colm Reilly
• 10. Josh Ioane
• 11. Finn Treacy
• 12. Cathal Forde
• 13. Piers O’Conor
• 14. Mack Hansen
• 15. Shane Jennings

Replacements

• 16. Dylan Tierney-Martin
• 17. Denis Buckley
• 18. Jack Aungier
• 19. Darragh Murray
• 20. Paul Boyle
• 21. Matthew Devine
• 22. JJ Hanrahan
• 23. David Hawkshaw

Why this team?

This isn’t about disrespecting senior players — it’s about giving Connacht the best chance of keeping their season alive.

The side that lost to Munster last weekend needs changing. They’ve carried the load all year and it showed. Connacht need to bring fresh legs, fresh energy, and fearless players ready to scrap for every inch.

This team blends youth, form and physicality:

• Shane Jennings at full-back: One of Connacht’s brightest young talents. I think he is injury free.
• Mack Hansen back on the wing: World-class in broken play.
• Treacy on the other wing: Raw, hungry and deserves his shot.
• Forde & O’Conor in midfield: Direct, physical, with plenty to prove. Give Bundee and Gavin a rest and possibly bring them back for quarter-final
• Ioane & Reilly at half-back: Blade may need a break. These two can bring spark. Reilly deserves a chance and Devine is there to come on any time.
• A proper, physical pack: Joe Joyce and Niall Murray in the engine room, with Murphy at 6 to bring a hard edge alongside Hurley-Langton and Jansen.

The bench is loaded with experienced heads to close the game out.

The bottom line

Connacht’s URC campaign is over — but their season is not.

This Saturday’s Challenge Cup Last 16 knockout at home to Cardiff is everything now. Win, and they will host a European quarter-final in Galway. Lose, and it’s all over.

The time for caution and conservatism is gone.
It’s time to back the squad, trust the fresh legs, and change the mood.

Fresh faces. Fresh energy. A fresh approach.
Connacht’s season depends on it.