Saturday’s Test between Wales and Japan is now far more than a November warm-up. With Wales on 73.57 ranking points and Japan on 73.25, just 0.32 points separates the sides, making this a genuine winner-takes-all battle for the final Band 2 spot in the World Cup draw.

Form and Context

Wales come into the game after a disappointing defeat to Argentina. Their attack lacked fluency, the lineout malfunctioned at key moments, and poor exits allowed Argentina to control large portions of the contest. Wales created chances but lacked finishing precision, with discipline and breakdown errors costing them momentum.

Japan were beaten heavily by Ireland, but the scoreline didn’t tell the full story. For the first half, Japan were excellent — energetic, accurate, and full of tempo. They moved the ball quickly, attacked width with confidence, and caused Ireland real defensive problems. Their organisation and decision-making in the opening 40 minutes were sharp and clever.

The issue came in the final 20 minutes. Japan visibly ran out of energy. Their line speed dropped, they stopped competing at the breakdown, and the defensive system collapsed. Ireland dominated collisions, held possession for long phases, and punished tired legs. That late fade is now a major concern heading into Cardiff: Japan can be brilliant when fresh but struggle significantly when fatigue sets in.

Why This Match Matters

This fixture directly impacts World Cup seeding:

• Wales win → Band 2
• Japan win → Band 2
• Draw → dependent on margins and other results

Band 2 seeding provides a far more favourable pool draw, while Band 3 typically throws a team into a group with two Tier 1 powerhouses.

The Odds: Wales –11

Wales are priced as –11 favourites, largely due to home advantage and Japan’s defensive fade against Ireland. Wales will rely heavily on their physical edge, set-piece strength, and crowd intensity. Japan’s attacking spark means they’ll cause problems — but their stamina drop-off is something Wales are likely to target deliberately.

Tactical Breakdown

Wales Need Structure

For Wales, the focus must be on:

• improved breakdown protection
• cleaner exit strategies
• greater discipline
• direct carries through midfield

If they fix those areas, their physical edge and home crowd intensity should carry them.

Japan Need Chaos

Japan’s path to victory lies in playing a high-tempo game. They will rely on:

• fast ruck ball
• offloads in broken play
• quick tap penalties
• kicks behind the rush defence

If they succeed in dragging Wales into a quicker, less structured contest, they can overturn the odds.

Prediction

Both teams arrive wounded, both have everything to gain, and both have key weaknesses to address. Expect a tense, tactical contest decided by discipline and accuracy.

Prediction: Wales by 10–12 points.

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Larmour went off after half an hour on Saturday afternoon after picking up a groin injury and was replaced by Munster’s Shane Daly.

Chris Farrell was taken off early into the second half after taking a knock to the head and failed his head injury assessment.

The Munster centre was replaced by Ulster’s Billy Burns for the remainder of the game.

Both players will not feature this weekend as a result of the injuries they picked up at the weekend.

Ireland flanker Peter O’Mahony will also be unavailable for the match against the USA Eagles after he was released from the camp to begin his off-season.

The Munster star played 71 minutes in the win over Japan and was replaced by debutant and Munster Player of the Year Gavin Coombes.

It is likely that we see a less experienced side play against the USA than we did against Japan.

The news that these three international regulars will not be available guarantees that there will be a higher chance of this.

To view the full Irish squad for the Vodafone Summer Series, click here.

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The game will be shown live on Sky Sports and kick-off will be at 5 pm British Standard Time.

Warren Gatland and his selectors have made 14 changes to their Lions starting lineup with Josh Adams being the only survivor from the game against Japan.

Eight players are set to make their debuts for the side at Ellis Park – Luke Cowan-Dickie, Gareth Davies, Zander Fagerson, Chris Harris, Jonny Hill, Louis Rees-Zammit, Sam Simmonds and Hamish Watson.

Stuart Hogg will captain the team after joining up with the side following Exeter Chiefs’ loss to Harlequins in the Gallagher Premiership final.

Scotland fans will also get to see the duo of Ali Price and Finn Russell play alongside each other in the famous red shirt.

Ireland fans will have to wait until Gatland taps into the wealth of talent on the bench to see an Irish player.

The side they will face – their namesake Sigma Lions – will want to put on a show to welcome the British and Irish Lions to South Africa after 12 years away.

The Lions, who were called the Emirates Lions at the start of the week, were the opponents in the British and Irish Lions’ second game on the 2009 tour.

Their 2021 team will be hoping to do much better than the 74-10 drubbing that side received.

Willem Alberts, who played in that fixture, is unavailable for the side due to injury.

Their Pro14 Rainbow Cup South Africa campaign ended without a win after their last game was cancelled because of a COVID scare.

A poor Super Rugby Unlocked campaign in 2020 was a sign of things to come as they finished below Pro14 castaways Cheetahs.

Their side will be without anyone called up to the South Africa squad, including star player Elton Jantjies.

Warren Gatland’s side is heavily favoured in this matchup.

Betting

British and Irish Lions 1/25

Draw 70/1

Sigma Lions 13/1

Predicted Lineups

British and Irish Lions:

Stuart Hogg (captain); Louis Rees-Zammit, Chris Harris, Owen Farrell, Josh Adams; Finn Russell, Ali Price; Wyn Jones, Jamie George, Kyle Sinckler, Maro Itoje, Jonny Hill, Courtney Lawes, Hamish Watson, Taulupe Faletau.

Replacements: Luke Cowan-Dickie, Mako Vunipola, Zander Fagerson, Iain Henderson, Sam Simmonds, Gareth Davies, Bundee Aki, Elliot Daly.

Sigma Lions: EW Viljoen; Jamba Ulengo, Manuel Rass, Burger Odendaal, Rabz Maxwane; Jordan Hendrikse, Dillon Smit; Nathan McBeth, PJ Botha, Ruan Dreyer, Ruben Schoeman, Reinhard Nothnagel, Sbusiso Sangweni, Vincent Tshituka, Francke Horn (captain).

Replacements: Jaco Visagie, Sti Sithole, Carlu Sadie, Ruhan Straeuli, Emmanuel Tshituka, Morne van den Berg, Fred Zeilinga, Dan Kriel.

The post Lions v Sigma Lions: Preview, Betting, And Lineups appeared first on SportsNewsIreland.

The side will play their first test against another country since the 2019 Rugby World Cup quarter-final against South Africa.

Few changes have been made to the Japan team that played the British and Irish Lions for the first time ever.

Seven of the pack that faced off against the Lions start in Dublin.

Inagaki, Sakate and Koo line up in the front row with Wimpie Wan Der Walt and James Moore behind them in lock forward.

Captain Michael Leitch and Pieter Labuschagne are once again starting at flanker.

Last week’s try-scorer Kazuki Himeno comes into the starting XV at number eight, replacing Amanaki Mafi.

Naoto Saito comes into the side at scrum-half with the ever-reliable Yu Tamura beside him in the fly-half position.

Ryoto Nakamura and Timothy Lafaele will be the centre partnership for the second week in a row.

30-year-old Semisi Masirewa will start at 14 alongside Siosaia Fifita and Kotaro Matsushima.

Kaito Shigeno and Asaeli Ai Valu are among the players on the bench.

Japan Team v Ireland

15. Kotaro Matsushima (Clermont Auvergne)

14. Semisi Masirewa (Kinetsu Liners)

13. Timothy Lafaele (Kobelco Steelers)

12. Ryoto Nakamura (Suntory Sungoliath)

11. Siosaia Fifita (Kintetsu Liners)

10. Yu Tamura (Canon Eagles)

9. Naoto Saito (Suntory Sungoliath)

Forwards

1. Keita Inagaki (Panasonic Wild Knights)

2. Atsushi Sakate (Panasonic Wild Knights)

3. Ji-won Koo (Honda Heat)

4. Wimpie van der Walt (NTT Docomo Red Hurricanes)

5. James Moore (Munakata Sanix Blues)

6. Michael Leitch C (Toshiba Brave Lupus)

7. Pieter Labuschagne (Kubota Spears)

8. Kazuki Himeno (Highlanders)

Replacements

16. Kosuke Horikoshi (Suntory Sungoliath)

17. Craig Millar (Panasonic Wild Knights)

18. Asaeli Ai Valu (Panasonic Wild Knights)

19. Jack Cornelsen (Panasonic Wild Knights)

20. Tevita Tatafu (Suntory Sungoliath)

21. Kaito Shigeno (Toyota Verblitz)

22. Rikiya Matsuda (Panasonic Wild Knights)

23. Shane Gates (NTT Communications Shining Arcs)

The post Japan Side Announced For Match in Dublin appeared first on SportsNewsIreland.

The 23-man matchday squad was carved out of the 36-man squad available for selection.

The starting lineup is filled with players familiar with the Irish setup and the bench features some international prospects.

Dave Kilcoyne and Finlay Bealham will line up on either side of Ronan Kelleher, who had recently with Warren Gatland’s British and Irish Lions.

James Ryan returns to the starting lineup as captain and is paired with Ultan Dillane at lock forward.

Peter O’Mahony, Josh Van Der Flier and Caelan Doris round off the starting forwards in the back row.

Jamison Gibson-Park will wear the number nine shirt while Joey Carbery makes his first appearance in green since the 2019 Rugby World Cup in Japan.

Stuart McCloskey and Chris Farrell provide a veteran presence at inside and outside centre.

Jacob Stockdale, Jordan Larmour and Hugo Keenan fill out the back three.

Rob Herring and Billy Burns are joined by the uncapped Gavin Coombes and others on the bench.

The game will be available to watch on RTÉ 2 with coverage starting at 12:30 pm.

Ireland Team v Japan

Backs

15. Hugo Keenan (Leinster/UCD) 11 caps
14. Jordan Larmour (Leinster/St Mary’s College) 29 caps
13. Chris Farrell (Munster/Young Munster) 14 caps
12. Stuart McCloskey (Ulster/Bangor) 4 caps
11. Jacob Stockdale (Ulster/Lurgan) 34 caps
10. Joey Carbery (Munster/Clontarf) 22 caps
9. Jamison Gibson Park (Leinster) 9 caps

Forwards

1. Dave Kilcoyne (Munster/UL Bohemians) 43 caps
2. Ronan Kelleher (Leinster/Lansdowne) 11 caps
3. Finlay Bealham (Connacht/Buccaneers) 14 caps
4. Ultan Dillane (Connacht/Corinthians) 18 caps
5. James Ryan (Leinster/UCD) 35 caps Captain
6. Peter O’Mahony (Munster/Cork Constitution) 75 caps
7. Josh van der Flier (Leinster/UCD) 31 caps
8. Caelan Doris (Leinster/UCD) 7 caps

Replacements
16. Rob Herring (Ulster/Ballynahinch) 21 caps
17. Ed Byrne (Leinster/UCD) 4 caps
18. John Ryan (Munster/Cork Constitution) 23 caps
19. Ryan Baird (Leinster/Dublin University) 3 caps
20. Gavin Coombes (Munster/Young Munster) uncapped
21. Craig Casey (Munster/Shannon) 1 cap
22. Billy Burns (Ulster) 6 caps
23. Shane Daly (Munster/Cork Constitution) 1 cap

The post Ireland Team Announced For Japan Test appeared first on SportsNewsIreland.

James Ryan, who is set to captain Ireland in the Summer Series against Japan and the USA, is confirmed to have an adductor issue and will be monitored across the week to determine his availability for this weekend’s test.

Andy Farrell is unlikely to risk the 24-year-old who has had an injury-filled season for Leinster and Ireland.

#TeamOfUs

Here's your Ireland squad for the #VodafoneSummerSeries #ShoulderToShoulder

More: https://t.co/LToRkkpbkF pic.twitter.com/TIrJsMCC31

— Irish Rugby (@IrishRugby) June 14, 2021

However, the lock has not been ruled out of the game against Japan at this moment in time.

it is believed that the injury may have been a factor in Warren Gatland’s decision to choose Wales lock Adam Beard to replace Alun Wyn Jones in the British and Irish Lions squad.

Munster’s Peter O’Mahony will be among the candidates for the captaincy if Ryan is deemed unfit for the weekend.

Ulster’s Michael Lowry will continue to train with the squad this week.

The squad have reassembled after dispersing on Saturday afternoon following four days at the IRFU High Performance Centre in Dublin.

The Ireland team to play Japan on Saturday at 1 pm at the Aviva Stadium will be announced at lunchtime on Thursday.

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