Leinster v DHL Stormers Preview: Team News, Stats, Betting Odds and Prediction

James Lowe is set to make his 100th Leinster appearance as Leo Cullen names his side for Saturday night’s BKT United Rugby Championship quarter-final against the Fidelity SecureDrive Lions at the Aviva Stadium.

The game kicks off at 8pm and will be shown live on TG4 and Premier Sports 1.

Caelan Doris captains Leinster from number eight, with six changes to the matchday squad from the Investec Champions Cup final. Lowe returns to the side after equalling Shane Horgan’s all-time Leinster try-scoring record of 69 tries in his last outing.

Big Talking Point

Wow.

Ciarán Frawley being left out of the 23 is a very strange call unless there is an injury issue involved. Someone at Leinster may end up regretting not giving him a proper run at 10 over the last two years.

The Lions should be a lot more confident after seeing this Leinster starting team. Leinster are still packed with quality, but with Sam Prendergast and Luke McGrath starting at half-back, and Frawley not involved, there is definitely a betting angle here.

The handicap is Lions +15, and that looks huge based on this team news.

Recent URC Form

Leinster Last Six URC Matches

• Glasgow Warriors 38-17 Leinster
• Leinster 36-19 Scarlets
• Ulster 21-29 Leinster
• Benetton 29-26 Leinster
• Leinster 31-7 Lions
• Leinster 68-14 Ospreys

Lions Last Six URC Matches

• Lions 54-17 Edinburgh
• Lions 42-26 Dragons
• Lions 54-12 Glasgow Warriors
• Lions 33-21 Connacht
• Leinster 31-7 Lions
• Munster 24-17 Lions

The Lions have lost their last two matches in Ireland, but before that they had put together a seriously impressive run, including big home wins over Glasgow, Connacht, Edinburgh and Dragons.

Head-To-Head

• 25 February 2022: Leinster 21-13 Lions
• 15 April 2023: Lions 36-39 Leinster
• 20 April 2024: Lions 44-12 Leinster
• 26 October 2024: Leinster 24-6 Lions
• 09 May 2026: Leinster 31-7 Lions

Leinster have won four of the five URC meetings between the sides, with the Lions’ only win coming in Johannesburg in April 2024.

Key Match Stats

• This is Leinster’s eleventh successive appearance in the URC play-offs.
• Leinster have won all five URC quarter-finals they have played, with all five taking place in Dublin.
• Leinster’s only defeat in their last five URC matches was away to Benetton.
• The Lions have reached the URC play-offs for the first time.
• The Lions’ last eight URC matches have all been won by the home team on the day.
• The Lions’ only victory in ten visits to Ireland was a 38-14 win over Connacht in March 2024.
• The only away victory in this fixture was Leinster’s 39-36 win in Johannesburg in April 2023.

Top Scorers This Season

Leinster

• Top try scorer: Joshua Kenny – 9 tries
• Scott Penny – 5 tries
• Tommy O’Brien – 5 tries
• Top points scorer: Harry Byrne – 67 points
• Sam Prendergast – 56 points
• Joshua Kenny – 45 points
• Ciarán Frawley – 27 points

Lions

• Top try scorer: Ruan Venter – 7 tries
• Henco van Wyk – 6 tries
• Francke Horn – 5 tries
• Sibabalwe Mahashe – 5 tries
• Top points scorer: Chris Smith – 154 points
• Ruan Venter – 35 points
• Henco van Wyk – 30 points

Leinster Rugby Starting XV

1. A. Porter
2. D. Sheehan
3. T. Furlong
4. J. McCarthy
5. J. Ryan
6. M. Deegan
7. S. Penny
8. C. Doris (C)
9. L. McGrath
10. S. Prendergast
11. J. Lowe
12. J. Osborne
13. R. Ioane
14. J. O’Brien
15. H. Keenan

Replacements

16. G. McCarthy
17. A. Usanov
18. T. Clarkson
19. D. Mangan
20. J. van der Flier
21. J. Gibson-Park
22. H. Byrne
23. R. Henshaw

Match Details

Fixture: Leinster Rugby v Fidelity SecureDrive Lions

Competition: BKT United Rugby Championship Quarter-Final

Venue: Aviva Stadium

Kick-off: Saturday, 8pm

TV: TG4 and Premier Sports 1

Referee: Sam Grove-White

Verdict

Leinster should still win this game. Their pack is stacked, Doris captains the side, Lowe returns for a landmark 100th appearance, and the bench contains serious international quality in Josh van der Flier, Jamison Gibson-Park, Harry Byrne and Robbie Henshaw.

However, this does not feel like a full-throttle Leinster selection. Frawley missing out is the eyebrow-raiser, and the Lions have enough power and attacking threat to stay within range if they start well.

Prediction: Leinster to win, but Lions +15 looks a big handicap.

The post Leinster v Lions URC Quarter-Final Preview, Team News And Betting Angle appeared first on SportsNewsIreland.

Ulster Rugby welcome Leinster Rugby in what promises to be one of the standout fixtures in the URC calendar, with both sides bringing strong form, elite attacking threats, and plenty of recent history into the clash.

With the betting line set at Ulster -2.5, this is a fascinating matchup that pits home advantage against long-term dominance.

Recent Form: Ulster vs Leinster

Ulster Form (Last 6)

• Lost 22–27 vs Scarlets
• Won 22–14 vs Cardiff Rugby
• Lost 10–21 vs Ospreys
• Won 40–19 vs Edinburgh Rugby
• Lost 19–26 vs Connacht
• Won 28–12 vs Zebre Parma

Ulster’s form has been inconsistent, with 3 wins and 3 losses, but their victories have been convincing, particularly the 40–19 win over Edinburgh.

Leinster Form (Last 6)

• Won 52–17 vs Connacht
• Won 34–23 vs Connacht
• Won 28–20 vs Edinburgh
• Lost 7–8 vs Cardiff Rugby
• Lost 17–38 vs Glasgow Warriors
• Won 36–19 vs Scarlets

Leinster arrive with 4 wins from 6, showing strong attacking output, scoring 52 and 36 points in recent fixtures.

Key Trends & Stats

• Ulster’s last three URC matches have been won by the away team
• Ulster’s only loss at home this season: 19–26 vs Connacht
• Leinster’s last six matches were all won by the home side
• Leinster have lost just once in Ireland since May 2024
• Leinster have won the last four meetings vs Ulster

That last stat is critical — Leinster have completely controlled this fixture in recent seasons.

Head-to-Head Record

Recent Meetings

• Leinster 24–20 Ulster (Dec 2025)
• Leinster 41–17 Ulster (Apr 2025)
• Ulster 20–27 Leinster (Nov 2024)
• Leinster 43–20 Ulster (Jun 2024)
• Ulster 23–21 Leinster (May 2024)
• Leinster 22–21 Ulster (Jan 2024)

Leinster have won 5 of the last 6 meetings, often by comfortable margins.

URC All-Time Record

• Ulster: 486 games – 287 wins (59.05%)
• Leinster: 500 games – 358 wins (71.60%)

Leinster’s long-term dominance in the competition is clear, boasting a significantly higher win rate.

Key Players to Watch

Top Try Scorers 2025/26

• Ulster: Werner Kok (7), Tom Stewart (6), Zac Ward (6)
• Leinster: Joshua Kenny (9), Scott Penny (5), Tommy O’Brien (5)

Top Points Scorers

• Ulster: Nathan Doak (83), Werner Kok (35)
• Leinster: Harry Byrne (55), Joshua Kenny (45), Sam Prendergast (36)

Head-to-Head Specialists

• Ulster: Craig Gilroy (7 tries), David Humphreys (88 points)
• Leinster: Dan Sheehan (7 tries), Ross Byrne (107 points)

Leinster’s depth in scoring options gives them a slight edge, particularly with multiple players contributing consistently.

Ulster Rugby v Leinster Rugby

Affidea Stadium, Belfast – KO 19.45 IRE & UK / 20.45 ITA & SA

Referee: Andrew Brace (IRFU, 115th league game)

AR 1: Andrew Cole (IRFU) AR 2: Tomás O’Sullivan (IRFU)

TMO: Olly Hodges (IRFU)

Live on: Premier Sports, SuperSport, Flo Rugby & URC.tv

Ulster Rugby: Jacob Stockdale, Werner Kok, James Hume, Stuart McCloskey, Zac Ward, Jack Murphy, Nathan Doak, Angus Bell, Tom Stewart, Tom O’Toole, Iain Henderson (CAPT), Cormac Izuchukwu, David McCann, Sean Reffell, Juarno Augustus

Replacements: James McCormick, Sam Crean, Scott Wilson, Harry Sheridan, Bryn Ward, Conor McKee, Jake Flannery, Jude Postlethwaite

Leinster Rugby: Hugo Keenan, Joshua Kenny, Garry Ringrose, Robbie Henshaw, Jimmy O’Brien, Sam Prendergast, Luke McGrath; Jerry Cahir, Rónan Kelleher, Thomas Clarkson, Brian Deeny, James Ryan (CAPT), Alex Soroka, Scott Penny, James Culhane

Replacements: Gus McCarthy, Ed Byrne, Rabah Slimani, Conor O’Tighearnaigh, Max Deegan, Will Connors, Fintan Gunne, Ciarán Frawley

Leinster Rugby Assistant Coach Tyler Bleyendaal said: “It’s a massive game. Ulster are ahead of us on the table. We’re going up looking for that performance that we haven’t quite nailed the last couple of weeks.”

Leinster have only 3 starters for the European team. Ulster are fully loaded

Betting Analysis: Ulster -2.5

This is where things get interesting.

On paper, Ulster -2.5 suggests the market is leaning heavily on home advantage. And there is logic to that:

• Ulster are strong at home
• Leinster’s away performances have been less consistent
• Ulster’s wins have been by decent margins

But here’s the reality check:

• have won 5 of the last 6 meetings
• Leinster rarely lose in Ireland
• Ulster’s inconsistency is a real concern

Prediction

This comes down to one question: Do you trust form or history?

Ulster have the home edge and enough firepower to win this. But Leinster have rested a lot of first team players, but there backs will do loads of damage. Should be entertaining second half

Prediction: Leinster to win

Best Bet: Leinster +4.5

Correct Score Prediction: Ulster 17–23 Leinster

Verdict: The line looks slightly off. Leinster as underdogs, even marginally, is value. Unless Ulster produce their best performance of the season, Leinster should edge this.

The post Ulster vs Leinster Preview: Stats, Form Guide, Betting Tips & Prediction appeared first on SportsNewsIreland.

Connacht have taken the first clear steps towards reshaping their squad for the 2026/27 season, confirming the arrivals of Francois van Wyk from Bath, along with Leinster pair Ciarán Frawley and Will Connors.

The three signings point towards a more experienced, URC-ready recruitment strategy, while a sizeable list of current players are expected to move on as part of what looks like a genuine squad reset.

Confirmed signings

• Francois van Wyk (Bath) – A powerful loosehead prop bringing Premiership experience and much-needed physicality to the Connacht pack.
• Ciarán Frawley (Leinster) – The headline signing. Comfortable at 10 or 12, Frawley offers flexibility, leadership and improved game management.
• Will Connors (Leinster) – A proven breakdown specialist and defensive workhorse when fit, adding edge and intelligence to the back row.

What the signings say about Connacht’s direction

This recruitment drive feels like a move away from long-term projects and towards players who can make an immediate impact. Van Wyk strengthens a front row that has struggled for consistency, Connors adds bite and accuracy around the ruck, and Frawley brings versatility in key decision-making positions.

There is a clear emphasis on rugby intelligence and experience — a welcome shift for a squad that has often been stretched thin in critical moments.

Confirmed departure

• Joe Joyce – Set to leave Connacht for Gloucester at the end of the season.

Likely departures

Several other players are widely expected to move on as part of the clear-out, although none have been confirmed by the province at this stage:

• Jack Carty
• David O’Connor
• Dave Heffernan
• Matthew Devine (linked with Ulster)
• Byron Ralston
• Chat Mullins
• James Nicholson

Possible departures – big decisions ahead

A number of senior players also fall into a grey area, with final decisions likely to shape how deep and how fast this rebuild goes:

• Dennis Buckley
• Eoin De Buitlear
• Oisin McCormack
• Peter Dooley
• Bundee Aki
• Ben Murphy

The bigger picture

This feels like Connacht finally accepting that a reset was unavoidable. Key positions had grown old together, depth was stretched, and too much pressure sat on too few players.

The arrival of Frawley and Connors, in particular, suggests a shift towards control, physical edge and consistency. However, this can’t be the end of the recruitment. Connacht will still need further URC-level reinforcements — especially in the front row and along the spine of the team — if this reset is to translate into real progress.

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Date: Friday, 28 November 2025
Venue: Rodney Parade, Newport
Kick-off: 19:45 (IRE/UK) | 20:45 (ITA) | 21:45 (SA)
Live on: Premier Sports, TG4, SuperSport, Flo Rugby & URC.tv

Match Officials

• Referee: Morne Ferreira (SARU) – 19th URC appearance
• AR 1: Craig Evans (WRU)
• AR 2: Lucas Yendle (WRU)
• TMO: Chris Allison (SARU)

Overview

Leinster travel to Rodney Parade as 20-point favourites, with the form guide, scoring trends and defensive numbers all pointing strongly in their direction. Dragons remain winless after five rounds and are conceding over 30 points per match, while Leinster’s attack has exploded into life in recent weeks with 81 points scored in their last two fixtures.

Despite missing several Ireland internationals through injury, Leinster’s depth remains one of the strongest in the competition and they arrive in Newport seeking a third win of the season.

Dragons RFC – 2025/26 Season Results

Record: P5 | W0 | D2 | L3
Points For: 74 | Points Against: 151
Average Score: Dragons 14.8 – 30.2 Opponents
Points Difference: –77

Key Dragons Trends

• Conceded 42, 49 and 24 points in three losses.
• Have yet to win a match this season.
• Scored between 17–21 points in every game except the Glasgow result.
• Defence statistically weakest in the URC after five rounds.

Leinster Rugby – 2025/26 Season Results

Record: P5 | W2 | L3
Points For: 126 | Points Against: 136
Average Score: Leinster 25.2 – 27.2 Opponents
Points Difference: –10

Key Leinster Trends

• Scored 31, 31 and 50 points in three of their last four matches.
• Attack improving significantly across the last two rounds.
• Bench impact continues to be a major strength.
• Defence inconsistent but improving at scrum and maul.

Leinster Injury Update

• Tommy O’Brien: GRTP protocols – unavailable.
• Ryan Baird: Leg injury – out up to 3 months.
• Will Connors: Arm injury – out for several weeks.
• Robbie Henshaw: Hamstring rehab – still unavailable.
• Jamie Osborne: Shoulder injury – out up to 4 months.
• James Culhane: Knee injury – out for next few months.

Head-to-Head (URC)

Average Margin (last 4 meetings): Leinster by 22.5 points

Match Analysis

1. Leinster’s Power & Tempo v Dragons’ Defence

Dragons concede over 30 points per match and have already leaked 42, 49 and 24 this season. Leinster’s attack is trending upwards, making this a difficult matchup for the hosts.

2. Dragons’ Scoring Limits

Dragons have yet to score more than 21 points and were held to zero in Glasgow. Against a Leinster side that has recently rediscovered its attacking edge, that may not be enough to stay competitive.

3. Leinster’s Depth Advantage

Even with key injuries, Leinster’s second-string remains among the strongest units in the URC. Their set-piece dominance and bench impact should tilt the later stages heavily in their favour.

Betting Preview – Leinster –20

Why Leinster Are Favoured

• Dragons winless in all five matches.
• Dragons have conceded 151 points – the most in the league.
• Leinster have won the last four head-to-heads by margins of 6, 33, 23 and 28.
• Leinster scored 50 points last weekend.
• Dragons have scored only 14–21 points in every game.

Recommended Bets

• Leinster –20 Handicap
• Leinster Winning Margin 21–30
• Over Leinster 29.5 Points
• Anytime Tryscorer: Harry Byrne, Jason Jenkins, Scott Penny
• Dragons Under 17.5 Points

Prediction

Leinster 38–13 Dragons
Leinster’s attacking form, physical dominance and squad depth should be too much for a Dragons side struggling for confidence and defensive stability. Unless conditions are severe, Leinster should have enough to cover the handicap.

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URC Round 3 – Weekly Betting Preview & Team News

The teams for this weekend’s Round 3 fixtures of the BKT United Rugby Championship have been named, with full match officials, broadcast details, and betting market reactions below.

Team News Headlines

• #MUNvEDI: Ten changes for Munster; Dylan Richardson debuts for Edinburgh.
• #SCAvSTO: Marnus van der Merwe returns for Scarlets; Willemse and Feinberg-Mngomezulu start for Stormers.
• #BENvLIO: John Bryant named for Benetton debut; JC Pretorius returns for Lions.
• #OSPvZEB: Harri Deaves hits 50 for Ospreys; Paolo Buonfiglio captains Zebre.
• #GLAvDRA: Johnny Matthews could reach 100 for Glasgow; Seb Davies & Jac Lloyd debut for Dragons.
• #LEIvSHA: Josh van der Flier captains Leinster; Sharks welcome back several Springboks.
• #ULSvBUL: Juarno Augustus makes first Ulster start; Handré Pollard among eight Springboks for Bulls.
• #CARvCON: George Nott & Osian Darwin-Lewis in line for Cardiff debuts; Shamus Hurley-Langton returns for Connacht.

Friday Betting Lines (Post Team Announcements)

• Glasgow -26 v Dragons (+26)
• Leinster -24 v Sharks (+24)
• Cardiff -3 v Connacht (+3)
• Ulster +6 v Bulls (-6)
• Munster -6 v Edinburgh (+6)
• Scarlets +6 v Stormers (-6)
• Benetton -9 v Lions (+9)
• Ospreys -15 v Zebre (+15)

Key Betting Movements

• Connacht backed (+4 ➜ +3) – market confident in the visitors’ structure; Cardiff drift slightly. Strength: 3/5
• Bulls backed (-4 ➜ -6) – money continues for Pretoria side with Pollard’s inclusion. Strength: 4/5
• Leinster drift (-27 ➜ -24) – punters taking the Sharks with the big start; some books offering +26. Strength: 3/5
• Stormers backed (-4 ➜ -6) – Springboks return and support follows. Strength: 3/5
• Munster drift (-10 ➜ -6) – Edinburgh still +8 in places and heavily backed; punters fancy the upset. Strength: 5/5

Market Trends

• Edinburgh and Sharks are the most popular underdogs with punters this week.
• Cardiff–Connacht remains the most finely balanced line of the weekend.
• Glasgow (-26) continues to hold the biggest spread.
• Two Irish provinces (Leinster & Munster) remain firm favourites, while Connacht and Ulster start as underdogs.

Full Fixture List, Officials & Team Lineups

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 10

Munster Rugby v Edinburgh Rugby – Virgin Media Park, Cork (KO 19.45 IRE/UK)

Referee: Ben Whitehouse (WRU, 110th league game) | Live on: TG4, Premier Sports, SuperSport, Flo Rugby & URC.tv

Munster: Mike Haley, Calvin Nash, Tom Farrell, Seán O’Brien, Andrew Smith, JJ Hanrahan, Paddy Patterson, Mikey Milne, Diarmuid Barron (C), Oli Jager, Jean Kleyn, Fineen Wycherley, Jack O’Donoghue, Ruadhán Quinn, Gavin Coombes.
Replacements: L. Barron, J. Wycherley, J. Ryan, E. Edogbo, B. Gleeson, E. Coughlan, T. Butler, D. Kelly.

Edinburgh: Goosen, Graham, O’Conor, Lang, Van der Merwe, Healy, Vellacott, Schoeman, Ashman, Rae, Sykes, Skinner, McConnell, Richardson, Bradbury (C).
Replacements: Harrison, Venter, Hill, Young, Douglas, Muncaster, Shiel, Paterson.

Sean Everitt: “It’s a completely different challenge this week – a tough test at a difficult venue in Cork. There’s been massive growth already within this group and the energy has been excellent.”

Scarlets v DHL Stormers – Parc y Scarlets, Llanelli (KO 19.45 IRE/UK)

Referee: Federico Vedovelli (FIR) | Live on: S4C, Premier Sports, SuperSport, Flo Rugby & URC.tv

Scarlets: Murray, Rogers, Roberts, Williams (C), Mee, Hawkins, Davies, Hepburn, Van der Merwe, Thomas, T. Davies, Douglas, Taylor, D. Davis, Plumtree.
Replacements: Myhill, O’Connor, Holz, Cummins, B. Williams, Blacker, Costelow, Page.

Stormers: Willemse, Senatla, Simelane, Nel (C), Zas, Feinberg-Mngomezulu, Ungerer, Vermaak, Kotze, Sandi, Schickerling, Van Heerden, De Villiers, Dixon, Roos.
Replacements: Venter, Matongo, Porthen, Evans, Theunissen, Fourie, Khan, Matthee.

Dwayne Peel: “Stormers have real strength up front and in transition play. We must be brave with and without the ball.”

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 11

Benetton v Lions – Stadio Monigo, Treviso (KO 15.00 IRE/UK)

Referee: Andrew Brace (IRFU) | Live on: Sky Italia, Premier Sports, SuperSport, Flo Rugby & URC.tv

Ospreys v Zebre Parma – Bridgend (KO 15.00 IRE/UK)

Referee: Eoghan Cross (IRFU) | Live on: Premier Sports, SuperSport, Flo Rugby & URC.tv

Glasgow Warriors v Dragons RFC – Scotstoun (KO 17.30 IRE/UK)

Referee: Peter Martin (IRFU) | Live on: Premier Sports, SuperSport, Flo Rugby & URC.tv

Leinster Rugby v Hollywoodbets Sharks – Aviva Stadium (KO 17.30 IRE/UK)

Referee: Craig Evans (WRU) | Live on: Premier Sports, SuperSport, Flo Rugby & URC.tv

Ulster Rugby v Vodacom Bulls – Affidea Stadium, Belfast (KO 19.45 IRE/UK)

Referee: Mike Adamson (SRU) | Live on: Premier Sports, SuperSport, Flo Rugby & URC.tv

Cardiff Rugby v Connacht Rugby – Cardiff Arms Park (KO 19.45 IRE/UK)

Referee: Gianluca Gnecchi (FIR) | Live on: S4C, TG4, Premier Sports, SuperSport, Flo Rugby & URC.tv

Stuart Lancaster: “My experience playing against Cardiff, home or away, it’s never easy. They’re well organised and play a great brand of rugby, so it should make for a fantastic game.”

Betting Insights & Predictions

• Connacht (+3) – live underdog; capable of another tight finish in Cardiff.
• Bulls (-6) – power advantage could tell late in Belfast.
• Edinburgh (+6 to +8) – most backed team of the week; upset potential high.
• Sharks (+26) – value line with altitude and depth concerns for Leinster.

All odds accurate as of Friday evening. Markets subject to fluctuation.