Cheltenham betting advice for Wednesday

After a great first day for Irish runners, We will be looking for more winners today and we have all the important statistics needed.


Using 20 year stats:

• 18 of the 20 winners were in the top 6 of the betting.
 Taking the betting stat, I will reduce the field to 15 (cover any withdrawals, gambles etc)

Al Ferof
Bobs Worth
Court In Motion
First Lieutenant
Gagewell Flyer
Habbie Simpson
Minella Class
Oscars Well
Rock On Ruby
So Young
Tornado Bob

• 18 of the 20 winners were aged 5 or 6
 Aikman and Gagewell Flyer are excluded

• 19 of the 20 winners had been 1st or 2nd on their most recent start
 Haggie Simpson, Megastar and Zaidpour are excluded.

• 16 of the 20 winners had either won or came 2nd in pattern races
 So Young and Tornado Bob are excluded

• 16 of the 20 winners were NH bred
 Ballyhaunis and Bobs Worth are excluded

• 15 of the 20 winners won on their most recent start (7 of the last 10)
 Court In Motion, Minella Class and Rock On Ruby are excluded.

At the current prices, this looks to be between Oscars Well and First Lieutenant.


Using 20 year stats:

• 20 of the last 20 winners had run in the same calendar year (the last 46 winners have done so)
 Time For Rupert, the short priced favourite is excluded at this early stage. For those of you who think I am mad excluding “the banker” at such an early stage, bear in mind he also fails on not being novice hurdling last season and he has had only 2 chase starts.

• 20 of the last 20 winners had a top 3 finish on their most recent outing, all but 1 of these had finished in the top 2 – it may be unwise to rule out a Willie Mullins runner so easily, as he a tendency to upset some trends, but I will do so:
 Quel Esprit (Fell), Elysian Rock, Mikael D’Haguenet and The Minack are excluded.

• 17 of the last 20 winners had run at least 3 times over fences (all the last 11 winners had done so and only Florida Pearl since 1992 had not):
 Aiteen Thirtythree is excluded.

• 16 of the last 20 winners were aged 7 or 8
 Beshabar and The Giant Bolster are both excluded.

• 15 of the last 20 winners were contesting Novice Hurdles the previous season
 Jessies Dream is excluded

15 of the last 20 winners were returned 10/1 or less and only 2 greater than 16/1.
With Time For Rupert dominating the market, I fell this may be inaccurate. As it stands, the remaining 7 horses are all currently priced between 10/1 and 20/1.

There have only been 4 Irish winners since 1985, 3 by Willie Mullins, hence the hesitation of omitting any of his runners. However, the Irish have claimed 4 of the last 12 and have won the last 2.

The remaining stat is 11 of the last 15 winners had an official rating of 134 or less over hurdles. However, the last 4 winners have all had an official rating of higher than 134.

The list, as is, remains at 6:
Boston Angel
Master Of The Hall
Quito De La Roque
Wayward Prince
Wishfull Thinking

If I had to choose, I think the Wishfull Thinking is the horse to side with here as he was a classy hurdler and was running a big race at least years festival when falling 2 out.


Using 20 year stats:

• 19 of the last 20 winners had either won at 2m2f+ or over course and distance.
 Somersby is reluctantly excluded, having been placed at his 3 runs over CD and having never been out of the top 3 over fences.

• 17 of the last 20 winners have started in single figured odds (10/1, 11/1 and 16/1 were the remaining 3 winners)
 Mad Max, I’m So Lucky, French Opera and Cornas are excluded.

• 8 of the last 10 winners had either won the Arkle, finished in the top 3 in the Champion Chase or did not complete the champion chase
 Golden Silver, Woolcombe Folly, Captain Cee Bee and Master Minded are all excluded. It might seem odd to exclude 2 time champion chaser Master Minded at any stage as he seems to be in good nick at present but the fact that he only finished 4th in this last year is enough. For an 8 year old he has a few mile on the clock, compared with Big Zeb, 2 years his senior, who has had 3 fewer runs over fenced.

• 14 of the last 20 winners had won at odds of 5/1 or less.
 Sizing Europe should be excluded at this point, but with the Arkle winners having such a great record in this race he is a customary e/w punt.

This looks like it is down to Big Zeb to emulate last years emphatic win and a sizable (pardon the pun) e/w punt on Sizing Europe.

Even though this race is only 6 years old, there is a pattern already after emerging, so I am going to highlight a few trends

Backing last time out winners would have pointed the way to 5 of the last 6 winners or more specifically the last 5 winners from just a total of 39 last time out winners.

All the last 6 winners had been beaten on their first 2 hurdle starts.

This narrows down the considerably large 24 runner field to just 4 runners.
Whitby Jack
Plan A

All 4 have just had the requisite 3 runs to qualify for this race, of which 4 of the last 6 winners have done.

Ideally, you are looking for a runner in the top half of the weights so with Kayef in the bottom half, he is excluded to leave 3 remaining.

I fully expect the winner to come from these 3, but to narrow down to just one selection:

Backing the horses that are reverting back to 4yo company after racing against older horses last time out would have netted you a nice profit over the last 4 years. In doing so, this would have produced 1st and 2nd in 2010 and 2009, 2nd in 2008 and a 1st and 3rd in 2007.

This leaves Paintball as the selection in this race.


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