Connacht v Zebre Parma: Team News, Form, Stats and Betting Odds

Connacht will look to build on their brilliant Champions Cup win over Saracens when they return to United Rugby Championship action against Zebre Parma at Dexcom Stadium on Friday night.

Stuart Lancaster’s side produced one of the standout performances of the opening European weekend, scoring seven tries in a 45–36 victory over the former champions.

It was a result that few expected, particularly with Connacht having rested internationals Mack Hansen and Finlay Bealham. But the challenge now is to back it up against a Zebre side still searching for their first URC win of the season.

Connacht have won one and lost two of their opening three league games, so Friday offers an opportunity to improve that record before the URC table begins to take shape.

Connacht looking to build on Saracens win

The Saracens game showed just how dangerous Connacht can be when they get their attack moving. They recovered from an early 12–0 deficit and went on to score seven tries, with Ciarán Frawley crossing twice on his home debut.

There were still six tries conceded at the other end, however, and backs coach Gerard Mullen believes there is plenty of room for improvement.

Mullen said Connacht had left scores behind them against Saracens and conceded tries they were unhappy with. That will be a focus against Zebre, who are capable of playing an unstructured game and punishing sides that switch off.

Zebre struggling for wins

Zebre travel to Galway after a difficult start to their campaign. They have lost their opening three URC games and were beaten 40–21 by Ulster in the Challenge Cup last weekend.

The Italians have also lost their last six URC matches stretching back into last season. Their most recent URC win outside Italy came against Edinburgh in February 2025.

Those results, and Connacht’s performance against Saracens, make the home side clear favourites. But Mullen warned that games against teams struggling for results can be difficult.

The Connacht coach said his side needed to stick to their systems and improve again on the Saracens performance. He also expects Zebre to stay in the contest.

Connacht team news

Connacht have been boosted by the return to full training of Will Connors, Dave Heffernan and Harry West, with all three available for selection.

Shane Jennings and Thomas Connolly are ruled out as they go through graduated return-to-play protocols. There were no further updates on Dylan Tierney-Martin, Ben Murphy, Hugh Gavin or Byron Ralston.

Lancaster rested Hansen and Bealham against Saracens after they had played in each of Connacht’s opening three games. Whether either returns against Zebre will become clear when the matchday squad is named.

Connacht v Zebre head-to-head record

Connacht have an excellent recent record against Zebre, winning the last eight URC meetings between the sides.

Zebre’s last league victory over Connacht was a 19–11 win in Galway in February 2018. Overall, Connacht have won 17 of their league meetings with Zebre, with the Italian side winning three.

Connacht have also won their last six matches against Italian opposition since losing to Benetton in the Challenge Cup quarter-finals in April 2024.

Connacht v Zebre: What the stats say

Connacht have scored 101 points and 16 tries in four matches, while Zebre have scored 92 points and 12 tries in five. With the teams having played a different number of games, the per-game figures give a clearer comparison.

Connacht’s attacking figures are encouraging: they are averaging more carries, metres and tries per game, while the lineout figures also suggest an area where they could put Zebre under pressure.

Zebre have lost 14 of 82 lineouts, compared with three lost from 44 for Connacht. Zebre’s scrum success rate is slightly higher, however, and both sides are listed with a 97% ruck success rate.

The figures also show Connacht have kicked one penalty from eight attempts, compared with four from seven for Zebre. Connacht have scored nine conversions and Zebre 10.

In the URC specifically, Josh Ioane leads Connacht with three tries and 15 points. For Zebre, Giacomo Ferrari and Alessandro Fusco have scored two tries each, while Tommaso Allan leads their points tally with 13.

Connacht v Zebre betting odds and handicap

Connacht were giving Zebre a 17-point start on the handicap before the line moved to 21 points.

In this three-way handicap market, Connacht must win by at least 22 points for the -21 selection to win. A Connacht victory by exactly 21 points is the handicap draw. Odds may change before kick-off.

The movement to -21 shows just how strongly Connacht are fancied, but it is a big margin to cover. Their attack has shown it can score heavily, while Mullen’s comments suggest the coaching staff expect Zebre to make them work for the result.

Connacht v Zebre prediction

Connacht should win this game. They have the stronger recent form, an excellent record against Zebre and should take plenty of confidence from the Saracens performance.

The bigger question is whether they can produce the same energy and accuracy a week later, with the expectation now firmly on them. If Connacht get their attack going and cut out some of the scores they conceded last weekend, there should be opportunities to put points on the board.

Zebre’s results make it difficult to argue against a home win, but the move from -17 to -21 leaves a sizeable handicap, particularly if the visitors can stay in touch for as long as Mullen expects.

Match officials

Referee: Hanru van Rooyen

Assistant referee: Jack MacNeice

Assistant referee: Sam Holt

TMO: Egon Seconds