Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots

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The Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots meet in a clash between two 1-1 teams still figuring out their identities in 2025.

Aaron Rodgers’ first game as a Steeler was a success as he guided them to a win over the Jets, but the reality check came quickly. Pittsburgh were beaten 31-17 at home by Seattle in Week 2, conceding 31 points and looking shaky on defence. T.J. Watt has been relatively quiet so far, and the Steelers’ once-dominant defence has now given up 30+ points in consecutive games for the first time since 1989.

New England took the opposite route to their 1-1 record, starting with a disappointing 20-13 home loss to the Raiders before exploding for a 33-27 road win over Miami. Rookie QB Drake Maye continues to show promise, but the Patriots’ defence has been a mixed bag — they’ve been stout against the run but vulnerable to big plays through the air, and will be without key cornerback Christian Gonzalez this week due to a hamstring injury.

Key Trends

• Patriots have won just 2 of their last 11 home games.
• Steelers have won 1 of their last 7 overall.
• Pittsburgh are 3-5 ATS (against the spread) in their last 8 games as favourites.
• The under has hit in 5 of the Steelers’ last 6 games.
• Pittsburgh’s offence has been held to 17 points or fewer in 6 of their last 7 games.

Matchup Breakdown

This game feels like a coin flip. Rodgers should benefit from the absence of Gonzalez in the Patriots’ secondary, and the Steelers have enough offensive weapons to trouble a New England defence that has struggled with missed tackles. However, Pittsburgh’s running game has been non-existent, averaging just 62.5 rushing yards per game, which heaps pressure on Rodgers to make plays.

On the other side, Maye faces a Steelers pass rush that still ranks among the league’s best in pressure rate, even if the sack numbers aren’t there yet. If Pittsburgh can contain Rhamondre Stevenson and force Maye into third-and-long situations, they could limit the Patriots’ scoring opportunities.

Betting Verdict

Neither side can be trusted to cover the spread with confidence, but trends point towards a low-scoring battle. Both teams have been inconsistent offensively, and Pittsburgh’s habit of hitting the under is hard to ignore. Expect Rodgers to do just enough to edge a narrow win.

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