As the United Rugby Championship (URC) approaches its climax, all eyes are on the battle for the top eight.
Play-off spots are on the line, and the latest projections from the league’s official model have been met with an intriguing comparison — from none other than rugby journalist Joe Naughton, posting as @JoeNaConnacht.
Known for his sharp analysis and independent insights, Naughton has shared his own forecast for the URC play-offs — and it’s making waves.
Agreement at the Top: Five Teams Locked In
Both Naughton and the URC agree: Leinster, Bulls, Glasgow, Sharks, and the Stormers are virtual certainties for the play-offs. All five sit at 100% qualification odds in Joe Naughton’s table (except the Stormers at 95% in the URC model), with Leinster expected to hit a staggering 81–82 points.
This shared confidence in the top five highlights a clear tier of elite performers who’ve separated themselves from the pack.
Where the Models Diverge: Connacht, Ulster & Benetton
The biggest talking point is Connacht. While the URC model puts their play-off chances at just 16%, Joe Naughton gives them a far healthier 40% with a projected finish of 47–50 points. This discrepancy reflects a difference in how the two models assess fixture difficulty and current form.
Benetton sees the opposite trend — URC is far more optimistic at 63%, compared to Naughton’s 40%. For Ulster, it’s another wide gap: 10% in the JoeNaConnacht model versus 34% in the URC’s forecast.
Crunching the Middle Pack
Teams like Cardiff land in the middle across both models: 34–35% play-off probability depending on the source. But others, like Scarlets (5% JNC vs 17% URC) and Edinburgh (40% URC, not listed in JNC’s top dozen), show clear differences in interpretation.
Naughton’s model seems more conservative — based heavily on points forecasts and potential match-ups — whereas the URC appears to hold out hope for late-season swings.
Long Shots and No Hopes
Both models rule out the same three sides: Zebre, Dragons, and Ospreys, each given 0% play-off probability. That leaves just a few fringe teams hanging on by a thread — notably Lions, Ulster, and Scarlets — but the gap in their respective odds hints at deeper disagreement between forecasting methods.
Verdict: A Journalist’s Eye vs The Official Line
Joe Naughton’s predictive model brings clarity, simplicity, and a sharper edge to forecasting. It avoids false hope and presents a straight-talking view of who’s really in the hunt. The URC model, meanwhile, keeps more teams alive on paper, appealing to fans dreaming of a dramatic final push.
As the regular season hits its final rounds, both models will be put to the test — but for fans who want no-nonsense, evidence-based insight, JoeNaConnacht is the one to watch.
Follow @JoeNaConnacht on X for more exclusive rugby analysis, fixture predictions, and statistical breakdowns as the URC heads into the final stretch.
