There’s something comforting about backing a favourite. The stats are in their favour, the crowd expects them to win and betting platforms reflect this with short odds. But for bettors who are willing to look deeper and challenge the obvious, there’s often more value hiding behind the underdog.
This isn’t about being a contrarian for the sake of it. It’s about understanding why favourites don’t always win and how smart punters have historically made solid returns by betting on the less likely outcome.
Let’s dig into how and why this works.
The Odds Reflect Perception
Odds aren’t objective indicators of true probability. As is the case with pretty much everything in business, they’re market-driven. That means they’re shaped by how the general public bets, not necessarily by how likely a team or athlete is to win. When a huge number of bets pile on a favourite, sportsbooks adjust the odds to protect their margins.
In simpler terms, the more popular the favourite becomes, the worse the return if they win. And the more inflated the odds on the underdog become.
A classic example happened during the 2015-2016 English Premier League season, when Leicester City started the season at 5,000-to-1 to win the title. Bookmakers weren’t assessing real-world potential. They were managing risk. Punters who placed small bets on Leicester at the start of that season walked away with life-changing sums.
Favourites Do Lose and They Lose Often
The word “favourite” sounds solid. Reliable. But in betting, it’s far less secure than people assume. Especially in sports like football, tennis, or MMA, where one moment or mistake can change the entire outcome.
In the 2019 Wimbledon, Novak Djokovic was the favourite in the men’s final. He won. But Serena Williams, a clear favourite in the women’s draw, lost to Simona Halep in straight sets. This was domination by the underdog. Those who bet on Halep got a solid return because they understood one key truth: favourites are human. They can crumble under pressure or simply have an off day.
The Psychology Behind Overvalued Favourites
There’s a name for this in behavioural economics: “favourite-longshot bias.” It describes the tendency of bettors to overvalue favourites and undervalue longshots. The market collectively assumes the favourite is safer than it really is. And that inflates their perceived chances.
This creates space for value betting. Here’s how the numbers often work out in favour of the bettor who’s willing to go against the grain:
- A bet on a favourite might offer 1.30 odds, meaning a €100 bet returns €130 (just €30 profit).
- A bet on the underdog might offer 4.50 odds. Even if that bet wins just one out of four times, you’re still up.
This is where volume matters. It’s not about guessing one miracle upset. It’s about understanding patterns over time. These margins are where sharp bettors find long-term value — especially in real-money betting environmentswhere odds reflect crowd behaviour more than raw probability.
When It Makes Sense to Bet Against the Favourite
Some situations make the case even stronger:
- Public Overreaction: After a star player has a strong game, the market often overreacts, pushing odds too far in their favour for the next match.
- Back-to-Back Matches: Fatigue affects performance. An underdog playing a fresh squad can have an edge.
- Style Matchups: In combat sports especially, a lesser-ranked fighter with a grappling-heavy style can neutralise a striker who is heavily favoured.
- Weather Conditions: In outdoor sports, conditions can throw off even elite performers. Rain in Formula 1 or wind in tennis has flipped more matches than fans like to admit.
Quick tips:
Look for inflated odds after media hype, especially when the favourite just came off a big win or dramatic moment. The public memory is short, but the odds reflect that excitement.
Underdogs in tournaments often perform better than expected. In events with multiple rounds and rest periods, lesser-known names can outlast emotional or overhyped favourites.
Real-World Betting Example: UFC 269
In 2021, Amanda Nunes, one of the most dominant champions in UFC history, was a massive favourite against Julianna Peña. Most expected a quick finish. Peña, with odds between 6.00 and 7.00 on most sportsbooks, stunned the world by winning in Round 2.
This wasn’t a fluke. Peña’s training camp had targeted Nunes’ weaknesses and she stayed calm under pressure. Bettors who ignored public sentiment and focused on the matchup were rewarded heavily.
Risk and Discipline Still Matter
Betting against favourites isn’t a magical formula. It carries risk and losses will happen. But with smart bankroll management, a consistent strategy and patience, it can be part of a more balanced betting approach.
One way to avoid reckless decisions is to track closing line value (CLV). If the odds you took beat the closing odds (meaning they shortened closer to game time), that’s often a sign of a smart bet, regardless of the outcome. It shows you caught value before the market adjusted.
Also, avoid the temptation to chase long shots purely for the odds. Betting against the favourite should be based on reasoning, not hope.
What Bookmakers Won’t Tell You
Bookmakers don’t fear casual bettors who always pick favourites. Those users usually bring predictable behaviour and manageable risk.
But the bettor who consistently identifies value in overlooked matchups? That’s the one who forces odds movement. That’s the type of player whose account might quietly face stake limits after too many sharp moves.
The irony is, this bettor is often doing nothing more than watching form, reading injury reports and questioning public bias.
