🏉 Cardiff Rugby v Connacht Rugby: URC Round 3 Preview
Venue: Cardiff Arms Park, Cardiff
Kick-off: 19:45 (IRE/UK) | 20:45 (ITA/SA)
Referee: Gianluca Gnecchi (FIR, 43rd league game)
Assistants: Ben Breakspear (WRU), Lucas Yendle (WRU)
TMO: Stefano Penne (FIR)
Live on: S4C, TG4, Premier Sports, SuperSport, Flo Rugby & URC.tv
🟦 Cardiff Enter New Era After Coaching Change
Cardiff’s narrow 23–20 defeat to Munster at Thomond Park last weekend showed plenty of fight, but it also came during a week of major transition. Head coach Matt Sherratt has departed to join Steve Tandy’s Wales coaching ticket as full-time attack coach after serving as caretaker boss during the Six Nations and summer tour of Japan.
Cardiff are now led on an interim basis by assistants Richie Rees and Richard Hodges, who have been part of the club’s structure for several years. Sherratt’s influence, though brief, gave Cardiff a clearer attacking identity and renewed discipline across the squad.
The Arms Park remains one of the most challenging venues in the URC. Cardiff’s only home defeat in their last four league games came against the Sharks (22–42, January 2025), and they have since won three straight at home — their best sequence since 2022.
However, the Welsh side’s record against Irish opposition remains poor: just two wins in their last 12 meetings, both at home — versus Ulster (October 2024) and Munster (April 2025). They’ll also remember that Connacht beat them three times last season, including twice in the URC and once in the Challenge Cup last 16.
☘️ Connacht Eager to Regain Rhythm After Postponement
Connacht’s Round 2 clash with Scarlets was postponed due to Storm Amy, after the visitors’ flight was diverted to Manchester. The cancellation was confirmed late on Friday night, meaning players only found out on Saturday morning.
“A lot of players only found out when they woke up. They were mentally and physically ready. It’s frustrating — especially after such a strong start against Benetton.”
— Stuart Lancaster, Connacht Head Coach
That opening-round victory over Benetton showcased the new structure Lancaster has brought — tighter defence, sharper decision-making, and renewed confidence. Connacht have won their last two URC matches but have not managed three consecutive victories since March 2024, nor back-to-back away wins since 2023.
Their only defeat to a Welsh team since 2021 came in a 40–43 shootout against Ospreys last March. Against Cardiff, Connacht are unbeaten since September 2021 and have wins in their last two visits to the Arms Park.
💪 Team & Injury News
Mack Hansen, Bundee Aki, and Finlay Bealham are all back training but unlikely to feature this week. Josh Ioane and Byron Ralston have returned to full fitness and could be included.
- Niall Murray (ankle) – out several weeks after surgery.
- Oisín Dowling (knee) – sidelined until December.
- Temi Lasisi (knee) – continues rehabilitation.
Cian Prendergast is expected to captain again, with Jack Carty at fly-half and Cathal Forde in midfield.
📉 Handicap (as of Wednesday)
Cardiff –4 v Connacht +4
Cardiff start as narrow favourites at home, but Connacht’s strong record against Welsh opposition could see late support for the visitors as team news emerges on Friday.
📊 Key Stats & Trends
- Cardiff’s only win in their last four URC games came against the Lions (33–20).
- Cardiff have won their last three home matches, their best run since 2022.
- Cardiff’s only home defeat in their last four came to the Sharks (22–42).
- Cardiff have won just two of their last 12 games against Irish provinces.
- Connacht are unbeaten against Cardiff since 2021, with two wins in Cardiff.
- Connacht have won their last two URC games but not three in a row since March 2024.
🔮 Prediction
Cardiff’s recent form at the Arms Park makes them a serious proposition, but Connacht’s organisation and defensive edge under Lancaster may once again give them the upper hand. Expect another tight contest decided in the final ten minutes.
Verdict: Connacht by 2 — Jack Carty’s control could be the difference.
