European Rugby – Monday Handicap Moves
Castres vs Bath
Castres +6 → +8
This has gone Bath’s way. Market clearly happier backing Bath by more than a score. Castres at home hasn’t scared anyone so far.
Edinburgh vs Gloucester
Edinburgh -8 → -13
Big move early. Edinburgh expected to go strong, Gloucester likely won’t. Simple as that.
Bulls vs Bristol Bears
Bulls -11 → -17
Still don’t get this one. Feels like people betting altitude rather than teams. Bristol look set to travel properly, Bulls have bigger priorities. Odd move.
Clermont vs Glasgow Warriors
Clermont +8 → +8
Nothing happening here. Neither side screaming urgency, market happy to sit on it.
Leinster vs La Rochelle
Leinster -23 → -18
Opened huge, maybe a touch too big. Leinster still expected to win well, but the market didn’t want to keep pushing it out.
Sale Sharks vs Sharks
Sale -14 → -17 → -16
Early Sale money, then a bit of pullback once it stretched. Looks about right now.
Scarlets vs Pau
Scarlets -7 → -8
Small nudge to the home side. Nothing dramatic, low-stakes game.
Leicester Tigers vs Bayonne
Leicester -26 → -29
One-way traffic. Bayonne away in Europe with league worries, Leicester not messing about.
Harlequins vs Stormers
Harlequins +4 → +1
Market cooled on Stormers fairly quickly. Quins expected to be much closer than first thought.
Toulon vs Munster
Toulon -8 → -11
Drifting Toulon’s way all day. Home power game being respected, Munster still competitive but it’s a tough ask.
Bordeaux vs Northampton Saints
Bordeaux -16 → -14
Opener looked big. Saints money came in, probably expecting both sides to go strong.
Saracens vs Toulouse
Saracens +6 → +10
This is all about selection. Toulouse depth trusted, Saracens rotation risk being priced in.
Ulster & Connacht
There won’t be any betting on Ulster or Connacht until Friday.
Expect Ulster’s handicap to open around -21, and they could easily win by 30 points. They’ll be targeting this game hard, with one eye on whether the fixture against Stade Français ends up determining if they have a home run all the way to the final.
Connacht, meanwhile, are down to the bare bones. Realistically, the priority is beating Montauban the following week to try secure a home last-16 and get bodies back before facing Leinster (likely Leinster C) for the opening of the Clan Stand.
This weekend, Montpellier will be focused on finishing as overall top seeds in the Challenge Cup. Expect rotation, but still a strong side knowing points difference could matter. The handicap should land around -25, and the final margin could be similar or even push towards 40.
