Connacht v Scarlets URC Preview: Stats, Betting and Video interviews.
URC Round 2 – Dexcom Stadium, Galway
Saturday 4 October, KO 13:45 (IRE/UK)
Live on TG4, Premier Sports, URC.tv
📊 Form & Context
Connacht Rugby are chasing their first run of three consecutive BKT United Rugby Championship victories since March 2024, after edging Benetton 26–15 in round one. Stuart Lancaster’s side showed a marked defensive improvement, a theme the new head coach has been eager to highlight since arriving in Galway.
Scarlets, meanwhile, fell 34–21 at home to Munster, extending their losing run to three matches and leaving them searching for their first win since May 2024. Their poor record against Irish provinces continues, with just one victory since March 2021.
🔎 Key Stats to Know
- Connacht have won their last two URC games but not three in succession since March 2024.
- Connacht have won three of their last four home fixtures in the Championship at Dexcom Stadium.
- Connacht’s only defeat to a Welsh side since 2021 was away to Ospreys last March.
- Scarlets have lost three in a row and risk four straight defeats for the first time since May 2024.
- Scarlets’ only victory over an Irish province since March 2021 was a home win against Leinster in April.
- Connacht have won their last four encounters with Scarlets since March 2021.
🗣️ Quotes
Jack Carty has spoken about the lift under Lancaster: “I wake up every morning and I’m buzzing coming into work, and maybe over the last number of years I may not have been there all the time.”
Stuart Lancaster pointed to defence as the biggest change: “Defensively was the big marker for me compared to last year where you know Connacht would score but then concede tries and lose big games. One of the stats I showed the players from last season was the number of try-saving tackles we made, and I think we’ve equalled it in one game.”
Lancaster added: “Treviso are a very good team, very physical and very big. We kept getting off the line and held our nerve. If you said at the start of the day, when I saw the Treviso team, that we would come away with a bonus point win I would have taken it.”
📈 Recent Meetings
- Scarlets 23–24 Connacht (Parc y Scarlets, Oct 2024)
- Connacht 26–20 Scarlets (Dexcom Stadium, Mar 2024)
- Connacht 36–14 Scarlets (Dexcom Stadium, Oct 2022)
- Scarlets 23–29 Connacht (Parc y Scarlets, Feb 2022)
🔑 Key Factors
- Defensive resilience: Connacht conceded just 15 points to a physical Benetton pack in round one.
- Home form: Three wins from their last four URC games at the Dexcom Stadium.
- Scarlets’ travel woes: Only one win away to an Irish side in over three years.
- Returning internationals: Lancaster is expected to strengthen Connacht’s XV with more Irish internationals this weekend.
📉 Betting & Market View
Connacht opened as -10 favourites, a reflection of their home form and Scarlets’ struggles. Punters see Lancaster’s side continuing their strong defensive form, while Scarlets need a big turnaround to stay competitive.
📝 Prediction
Connacht look to be growing into the Lancaster era quickly, with defensive steel and renewed leadership from Carty. Scarlets’ record against Irish sides is a major concern, and their confidence is fragile after three defeats.
Verdict: Connacht to win by 12–15 points, with Scarlets battling but falling short in Galway.
