Leinster v Lions URC Quarter-Final Preview: Team News, Stats And Betting Angle
James Lowe is set to make his 100th Leinster appearance as Leo Cullen names his side for Saturday night’s BKT United Rugby Championship quarter-final against the Fidelity SecureDrive Lions at the Aviva Stadium.
The game kicks off at 8pm and will be shown live on TG4 and Premier Sports 1.
Caelan Doris captains Leinster from number eight, with six changes to the matchday squad from the Investec Champions Cup final. Lowe returns to the side after equalling Shane Horgan’s all-time Leinster try-scoring record of 69 tries in his last outing.
Big Talking Point
Wow.
Ciarán Frawley being left out of the 23 is a very strange call unless there is an injury issue involved. Someone at Leinster may end up regretting not giving him a proper run at 10 over the last two years.
The Lions should be a lot more confident after seeing this Leinster starting team. Leinster are still packed with quality, but with Sam Prendergast and Luke McGrath starting at half-back, and Frawley not involved, there is definitely a betting angle here.
The handicap is Lions +15, and that looks huge based on this team news.
Recent URC Form
Leinster Last Six URC Matches
- Glasgow Warriors 38-17 Leinster
- Leinster 36-19 Scarlets
- Ulster 21-29 Leinster
- Benetton 29-26 Leinster
- Leinster 31-7 Lions
- Leinster 68-14 Ospreys
Lions Last Six URC Matches
- Lions 54-17 Edinburgh
- Lions 42-26 Dragons
- Lions 54-12 Glasgow Warriors
- Lions 33-21 Connacht
- Leinster 31-7 Lions
- Munster 24-17 Lions
The Lions have lost their last two matches in Ireland, but before that they had put together a seriously impressive run, including big home wins over Glasgow, Connacht, Edinburgh and Dragons.
Head-To-Head
- 25 February 2022: Leinster 21-13 Lions
- 15 April 2023: Lions 36-39 Leinster
- 20 April 2024: Lions 44-12 Leinster
- 26 October 2024: Leinster 24-6 Lions
- 09 May 2026: Leinster 31-7 Lions
Leinster have won four of the five URC meetings between the sides, with the Lions’ only win coming in Johannesburg in April 2024.
Key Match Stats
- This is Leinster’s eleventh successive appearance in the URC play-offs.
- Leinster have won all five URC quarter-finals they have played, with all five taking place in Dublin.
- Leinster’s only defeat in their last five URC matches was away to Benetton.
- The Lions have reached the URC play-offs for the first time.
- The Lions’ last eight URC matches have all been won by the home team on the day.
- The Lions’ only victory in ten visits to Ireland was a 38-14 win over Connacht in March 2024.
- The only away victory in this fixture was Leinster’s 39-36 win in Johannesburg in April 2023.
Top Scorers This Season
Leinster
- Top try scorer: Joshua Kenny – 9 tries
- Scott Penny – 5 tries
- Tommy O’Brien – 5 tries
- Top points scorer: Harry Byrne – 67 points
- Sam Prendergast – 56 points
- Joshua Kenny – 45 points
- Ciarán Frawley – 27 points
Lions
- Top try scorer: Ruan Venter – 7 tries
- Henco van Wyk – 6 tries
- Francke Horn – 5 tries
- Sibabalwe Mahashe – 5 tries
- Top points scorer: Chris Smith – 154 points
- Ruan Venter – 35 points
- Henco van Wyk – 30 points
Leinster Rugby Starting XV
1. A. Porter
2. D. Sheehan
3. T. Furlong
4. J. McCarthy
5. J. Ryan
6. M. Deegan
7. S. Penny
8. C. Doris (C)
9. L. McGrath
10. S. Prendergast
11. J. Lowe
12. J. Osborne
13. R. Ioane
14. J. O’Brien
15. H. Keenan
Replacements
16. G. McCarthy
17. A. Usanov
18. T. Clarkson
19. D. Mangan
20. J. van der Flier
21. J. Gibson-Park
22. H. Byrne
23. R. Henshaw
Match Details
Fixture: Leinster Rugby v Fidelity SecureDrive Lions
Competition: BKT United Rugby Championship Quarter-Final
Venue: Aviva Stadium
Kick-off: Saturday, 8pm
TV: TG4 and Premier Sports 1
Referee: Sam Grove-White
Verdict
Leinster should still win this game. Their pack is stacked, Doris captains the side, Lowe returns for a landmark 100th appearance, and the bench contains serious international quality in Josh van der Flier, Jamison Gibson-Park, Harry Byrne and Robbie Henshaw.
However, this does not feel like a full-throttle Leinster selection. Frawley missing out is the eyebrow-raiser, and the Lions have enough power and attacking threat to stay within range if they start well.
Prediction: Leinster to win, but Lions +15 looks a big handicap.
