Leinster v Connacht: Handicap rockets to -21 as injury-hit visitors face Aviva reality

URC Round 9: Saturday 3 January, Aviva Stadium (KO 5.30pm). Live on TG4 & Premier Sports.

Leinster and Connacht meet at the Aviva on Saturday evening, and the gap between the two sides is being underlined by more than just form and history. The betting line was Leinster -16 before the teams were announced. Once the selections dropped, it shifted quickly to -21 — and it’s not hard to see why.

Why the market moved

Connacht have been struggling not just to win games, but to stay in them for full 80-minute stretches. The worrying pattern this season has been the collapses: spells where the opposition put points on in bunches and Connacht can’t stop the bleeding.

• Dragons: scored 40+ unanswered in a 40-minute spell.
• Ulster: scored 26 points in 25 minutes.

That’s the kind of trend that gets punished at the Aviva, where Leinster rarely take their foot off the throat once they get momentum.

Leinster team news

Dan Sheehan captains Leinster from hooker, with Andrew Porter and Thomas Clarkson either side of him in the front row. Joe McCarthy and Brian Deeny are in the second row, while the return of Will Connors (first start since October) is a notable one, alongside Diarmuid Mangan and Jack Conan.

In the backs, Sam Prendergast is named at out-half with Jamison Gibson-Park at nine. Charlie Tector and Hugh Cooney pair up in midfield, Tommy O’Brien and Joshua Kenny start on the wings, and Ciarán Frawley continues at full-back.

Leinster have gone with a 6–2 bench split, with Max Deegan and Josh van der Flier among the forward reinforcements — the sort of late impact that often turns a “close enough” scoreline into a hiding.

There’s also a subplot here: it’ll be highly entertaining to see how many of this Leinster matchday 23 are wearing Connacht colours next season. Two feels like a minimum.

Connacht team news

Connacht’s selection looks a bit odd in places — particularly outside the 9/10 axis — but injuries are clearly driving a lot of it. With Dave Heffernan and Jack Carty missing, Dylan Tierney-Martin starts at hooker and Josh Ioane comes in at out-half, forming a new half-back pairing with Matthew Devine.

Bundee Aki continues at inside centre, David Hawkshaw gets the start outside him, Chay Mullins returns to the right wing, Finn Treacy is on the left, and Sam Gilbert remains at full-back. Up front, Denis Buckley and Finlay Bealham anchor the scrum, with Joe Joyce and David O’Connor in the engine room. Cian Prendergast captains a back row that includes Josh Murphy and Sean Jansen.

Injury list: the scale of the problem

Connacht are without a huge chunk of their squad, and it cuts right across the spine — front row, half-backs, back row depth and pace out wide:

• Hugh Gavin
• Séamus Hurley-Langton
• Shane Jennings
• Oisín McCormack
• Jack Aungier
• Caolán Blade
• Shayne Bolton
• Oisín Dowling
• Mack Hansen
• Temi Lasisi
• Seán Naughton
• Byron Ralston
• Colm Reilly

When you add that to the patched-up feel of the selection, the market move starts to look less like an overreaction and more like a correction.

How the game could play out

Connacht will have their moments — they always do — and Bundee Aki will drag them into the fight. But the concern is the same one that’s haunted them this season: what happens when Leinster get momentum and Connacht are forced into repeated exits from deep?

If Leinster score early, get territory, and start pinning Connacht back, this has the potential to unravel quickly. The Aviva is not a place you can survive long spells without the ball, and Leinster’s bench usually turns the last 25 minutes into a different sport.

Probable result

Leinster 45–7 Connacht

That sounds savage, but with the injury list, the lack of continuity, and the way Connacht have been getting hit for big unanswered spells, it’s hard to see how they keep this tight.

And hopefully, when Leinster come to Galway for the opening of the new Clan Stand, Connacht are looking at a much shorter injury list — because that’s the fixture you want at full strength, with real edge, not survival mode.

Teams

Leinster

15. Ciarán Frawley
14. Tommy O’Brien
13. Hugh Cooney
12. Charlie Tector
11. Joshua Kenny
10. Sam Prendergast
9. Jamison Gibson-Park

1. Andrew Porter
2. Dan Sheehan (C)
3. Thomas Clarkson
4. Joe McCarthy
5. Brian Deeny
6. Diarmuid Mangan
7. Will Connors
8. Jack Conan

Replacements: Gus McCarthy, Jack Boyle, Rabah Slimani, Conor O’Tighearnaigh, Max Deegan, Josh van der Flier, Luke McGrath, Harry Byrne

Connacht

15. Sam Gilbert
14. Chay Mullins
13. David Hawkshaw
12. Bundee Aki
11. Finn Treacy
10. Josh Ioane
9. Matthew Devine

1. Denis Buckley
2. Dylan Tierney-Martin
3. Finlay Bealham
4. Joe Joyce
5. David O’Connor
6. Josh Murphy
7. Cian Prendergast (C)
8. Sean Jansen

Replacements: Eoin de Buitlear, Billy Bohan, Fiachna Barrett, Darragh Murray, Paul Boyle, Ben Murphy, Harry West, Cathal Forde