James Lowe is set to make his 100th Leinster appearance as Leo Cullen names his side for Saturday night’s BKT United Rugby Championship quarter-final against the Fidelity SecureDrive Lions at the Aviva Stadium.

The game kicks off at 8pm and will be shown live on TG4 and Premier Sports 1.

Caelan Doris captains Leinster from number eight, with six changes to the matchday squad from the Investec Champions Cup final. Lowe returns to the side after equalling Shane Horgan’s all-time Leinster try-scoring record of 69 tries in his last outing.

Big Talking Point

Wow.

Ciarán Frawley being left out of the 23 is a very strange call unless there is an injury issue involved. Someone at Leinster may end up regretting not giving him a proper run at 10 over the last two years.

The Lions should be a lot more confident after seeing this Leinster starting team. Leinster are still packed with quality, but with Sam Prendergast and Luke McGrath starting at half-back, and Frawley not involved, there is definitely a betting angle here.

The handicap is Lions +15, and that looks huge based on this team news.

Recent URC Form

Leinster Last Six URC Matches

• Glasgow Warriors 38-17 Leinster
• Leinster 36-19 Scarlets
• Ulster 21-29 Leinster
• Benetton 29-26 Leinster
• Leinster 31-7 Lions
• Leinster 68-14 Ospreys

Lions Last Six URC Matches

• Lions 54-17 Edinburgh
• Lions 42-26 Dragons
• Lions 54-12 Glasgow Warriors
• Lions 33-21 Connacht
• Leinster 31-7 Lions
• Munster 24-17 Lions

The Lions have lost their last two matches in Ireland, but before that they had put together a seriously impressive run, including big home wins over Glasgow, Connacht, Edinburgh and Dragons.

Head-To-Head

• 25 February 2022: Leinster 21-13 Lions
• 15 April 2023: Lions 36-39 Leinster
• 20 April 2024: Lions 44-12 Leinster
• 26 October 2024: Leinster 24-6 Lions
• 09 May 2026: Leinster 31-7 Lions

Leinster have won four of the five URC meetings between the sides, with the Lions’ only win coming in Johannesburg in April 2024.

Key Match Stats

• This is Leinster’s eleventh successive appearance in the URC play-offs.
• Leinster have won all five URC quarter-finals they have played, with all five taking place in Dublin.
• Leinster’s only defeat in their last five URC matches was away to Benetton.
• The Lions have reached the URC play-offs for the first time.
• The Lions’ last eight URC matches have all been won by the home team on the day.
• The Lions’ only victory in ten visits to Ireland was a 38-14 win over Connacht in March 2024.
• The only away victory in this fixture was Leinster’s 39-36 win in Johannesburg in April 2023.

Top Scorers This Season

Leinster

• Top try scorer: Joshua Kenny – 9 tries
• Scott Penny – 5 tries
• Tommy O’Brien – 5 tries
• Top points scorer: Harry Byrne – 67 points
• Sam Prendergast – 56 points
• Joshua Kenny – 45 points
• Ciarán Frawley – 27 points

Lions

• Top try scorer: Ruan Venter – 7 tries
• Henco van Wyk – 6 tries
• Francke Horn – 5 tries
• Sibabalwe Mahashe – 5 tries
• Top points scorer: Chris Smith – 154 points
• Ruan Venter – 35 points
• Henco van Wyk – 30 points

Leinster Rugby Starting XV

1. A. Porter
2. D. Sheehan
3. T. Furlong
4. J. McCarthy
5. J. Ryan
6. M. Deegan
7. S. Penny
8. C. Doris (C)
9. L. McGrath
10. S. Prendergast
11. J. Lowe
12. J. Osborne
13. R. Ioane
14. J. O’Brien
15. H. Keenan

Replacements

16. G. McCarthy
17. A. Usanov
18. T. Clarkson
19. D. Mangan
20. J. van der Flier
21. J. Gibson-Park
22. H. Byrne
23. R. Henshaw

Match Details

Fixture: Leinster Rugby v Fidelity SecureDrive Lions

Competition: BKT United Rugby Championship Quarter-Final

Venue: Aviva Stadium

Kick-off: Saturday, 8pm

TV: TG4 and Premier Sports 1

Referee: Sam Grove-White

Verdict

Leinster should still win this game. Their pack is stacked, Doris captains the side, Lowe returns for a landmark 100th appearance, and the bench contains serious international quality in Josh van der Flier, Jamison Gibson-Park, Harry Byrne and Robbie Henshaw.

However, this does not feel like a full-throttle Leinster selection. Frawley missing out is the eyebrow-raiser, and the Lions have enough power and attacking threat to stay within range if they start well.

Prediction: Leinster to win, but Lions +15 looks a big handicap.

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Big takeaway from the Connacht team announcement: Sean Jansen is the killer blow.

Jansen has been one of Connacht’s most important forwards all season with his carrying, line speed and defensive work-rate. Losing him for a game like this against Glasgow’s power pack is massive.

The other major concern is the backline depth and experience available.

No Harry West. No Cathal Forde. No Mack Hansen. No Byron Ralston. Jack Carty is unavailable due to personal reasons. Caolin Blade and Finn Treacy also miss the 23 despite returning to training this week.

Dylan Tierney-Martin and Darragh Murray returning to the starting side is a huge boost, while Dave Heffernan being fit enough for the bench gives Connacht badly needed experience and leadership in the pack.

Despite all the injuries, there is still real quality in the side.

Bundee Aki remains the focal point in midfield, Cian Prendergast captains the side again, while Sam Gilbert at 15 gives Connacht a genuine weapon with his goal-kicking. In a tight knockout game away from home, that boot could be absolutely crucial.

Glasgow Warriors Team News

Scott Cummings returns after an injury layoff for his first Glasgow Warriors appearance since before the Guinness Six Nations.

Glasgow Warriors Starting XV

Josh McKay; Kyle Steyn (captain), Stafford McDowall, Sione Tuipulotu, Kyle Rowe; Dan Lancaster, George Horne; Patrick Schickerling, Johnny Matthews, Zander Fagerson, Scott Cummings, Alex Samuel, Matt Fagerson, Rory Darge, Jack Dempsey.

Glasgow Warriors Replacements

Gregor Hiddleston, Rory Sutherland, Sam Talakai, Jare Oguntibeju, Euan Ferrie, Sione Vailanu, Jack Oliver, Ollie Smith.

Connacht Rugby Team

Connacht Starting XV

Sam Gilbert; Shane Jennings, John Devine, Bundee Aki, Shayne Bolton; Josh Ioane, Ben Murphy; Billy Bohan, Dylan Tierney-Martin, Sam Illo, Darragh Murray, Josh Murphy, Cian Prendergast (captain), Shamus Hurley-Langton, Paul Boyle.

Connacht Replacements

Dave Heffernan, Peter Dooley, Finlay Bealham, Joe Joyce, Sean O’Brien, Matthew Devine, Hugh Gavin, Sean Naughton.

Franco Smith On Connacht Challenge

“Connacht will present a strong challenge tomorrow evening. They have a well-drilled squad full of talent, and come here as one of the most in-form teams in the competition.

“We are pleased to welcome Scott back into our matchday 23 after his injury layoff – he has worked hard and worked closely with our medical and S&C teams to put himself in the best possible position ahead of his return.

“We know the difference that the Warrior Nation can make, and we look forward to hearing them get behind the team at Scotstoun as we kick off the playoffs tomorrow night.”

Stuart Lancaster On Connacht’s Opportunity

“This is exactly where we wanted to be at the start of the season, so credit must go to all the players for what they’ve displayed in recent months to get us to this position. Now we have to go out there and seize the opportunity.

“Glasgow are a formidable opponent especially away from home, with an array of talented players who are very well coached, but we are excited by the challenge ahead of us.”

Verdict

Connacht are not going to Scotstoun at full strength, and the injury list makes this a far tougher assignment. Losing Jansen is the biggest blow of all, while the lack of experienced backline cover leaves very little room for disruption once the game starts.

However, Connacht still have enough quality to make this uncomfortable for Glasgow. If Aki can get them over the gainline, Prendergast leads the pack well, and Gilbert punishes mistakes from the tee, Connacht have a puncher’s chance.

But against a strong Glasgow side, away from home, Connacht will need close to a perfect knockout performance.

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Montpellier v Ulster Preview: Underdogs Ulster Chase European Glory in Bilbao

EPCR Challenge Cup Final
Montpellier Hérault Rugby v Ulster Rugby
Venue: San Mamés Stadium, Bilbao
Date: Friday, 22 May 2026
Kick-off: 9pm local time / 8pm UK & Ireland time
TV: ITV, Premier Sports
Handicap: Montpellier -7

Ulster Rugby head into Friday night’s EPCR Challenge Cup Final as underdogs, with Montpellier installed as seven-point favourites for the Bilbao showdown.

Richie Murphy’s side have already produced a strong European run, including an impressive semi-final win over Exeter Chiefs, but this is another step up. Montpellier arrive with the power, depth and Top 14 edge that makes them clear favourites on the handicap line.

However, finals rarely follow a straight script. Ulster have named a side with pace, breakdown threat and enough attacking danger to make Montpellier work for everything at San Mamés Stadium.

Baloucoune Return Gives Ulster Extra Spark

One of the biggest boosts for Ulster is the return of Robert Baloucoune, who makes his first provincial start since his injury in Ireland’s Six Nations Triple Crown-clinching win over Scotland in March.

His pace on the right wing, alongside Zac Ward on the left and Michael Lowry at full-back, gives Ulster a back three capable of punishing loose kicking and broken-field errors.

That could be vital. If Montpellier dominate territory but become loose in transition, Ulster have the players to turn pressure into points quickly.

Timoney Leads A Serious Ulster Pack

Nick Timoney captains the side from openside flanker and will be central to Ulster’s chances at the breakdown.

The back row of David McCann, Timoney and Juarno Augustus looks well-balanced. McCann has been passed fit after a recent knee issue, while Augustus gives Ulster serious carrying power at number eight.

Up front, Ulster have gone strong with Angus Bell, Tom Stewart and Tom O’Toole in the front row, while Harry Sheridan and Cormac Izuchukwu start in the second row.

With Iain Henderson suspended for the final, Ulster needed others to step forward physically. This pack has enough quality, but Montpellier will test them brutally at scrum, maul and collision level.

The Half-Back Question

Nathan Doak starts at scrum-half, with Jack Murphy at fly-half. That pairing will have a massive say in whether Ulster can stay within the Montpellier -7 handicap.

Doak’s kicking game and game management will be crucial. Ulster cannot afford to play too much rugby in their own half. Murphy, meanwhile, needs to bring tempo without forcing the game too early.

If Ulster stay calm, kick well and keep the scoreboard moving, they can make this a tight final. If Montpellier build a lead early, the game could quickly move beyond Ulster’s preferred shape.

Key Battle: Montpellier Power v Ulster Speed

This final feels like a classic contrast.

Montpellier will look to squeeze Ulster physically, win penalties, build scoreboard pressure and force Murphy’s side to chase the game.

Ulster’s route is different. They need discipline, accuracy, strong exits and moments of pace from Ward, Baloucoune, Lowry and Hume.

James Hume and Jude Postlethwaite also have a big job in midfield. They must defend hard, win collisions and give Ulster enough gainline success to bring the back three into the game.

Betting Angle: Montpellier -7

The handicap being set at Montpellier -7 feels fair.

Montpellier deserve favouritism. They have the heavier squad profile, the Top 14 battle-hardness and the sort of forward power that often decides finals.

Still, Ulster are dangerous enough to make this awkward. Their bench also has good balance, with Jake Flannery and Ethan McIlroy offering late backline options if the game opens up.

The concern for Ulster is that if Montpellier win the set-piece and penalty count, the French side could slowly pull away. Ulster need this to be a one-score game entering the final quarter.

Prediction

Ulster have enough quality to trouble Montpellier, especially if Baloucoune and Ward get early touches. But Montpellier’s physical edge and final-winning profile make them the safer pick.

Prediction: Montpellier by 8-12 points.

Ulster Rugby Team

1. Angus Bell
2. Tom Stewart
3. Tom O’Toole
4. Harry Sheridan
5. Cormac Izuchukwu
6. David McCann
7. Nick Timoney (captain)
8. Juarno Augustus
9. Nathan Doak
10. Jack Murphy
11. Zac Ward
12. Jude Postlethwaite
13. James Hume
14. Robert Baloucoune
15. Michael Lowry

Replacements

16. James McCormick
17. Eric O’Sullivan
18. Scott Wilson
19. Charlie Irvine
20. Bryn Ward
21. Conor McKee
22. Jake Flannery
23. Ethan McIlroy

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The race for qualification to next season’s EPCR Investec Champions Cup has become one of the most confusing and fascinating subplots of the BKT United Rugby Championship season.

While supporters naturally assume the top eight teams in the final URC standings qualify automatically for Europe’s top competition, the reality is far more complicated due to EPCR regulations surrounding trophy winners.

Under normal circumstances, the top eight teams in the final BKT URC table secure qualification for the following season’s Investec Champions Cup.

However, EPCR rules also guarantee Champions Cup qualification for any club that wins either the Investec Champions Cup or the EPCR Challenge Cup, even if that side finishes outside the league qualification positions.

How Ulster Could Change Everything

The current complication centres around Ulster, who finished ninth in the URC standings but have reached this weekend’s EPCR Challenge Cup Final.

If Ulster win the Challenge Cup, they automatically qualify for next season’s Investec Champions Cup despite finishing outside the URC top eight.

That qualification place would come from the URC’s allocation of eight Champions Cup spots.

As things currently stand, that would mean Connacht, who occupy eighth place, would lose their Champions Cup place and instead drop into the EPCR Challenge Cup.

The Further Connacht Twist

However, the story does not end there.

If Connacht were then to go on and win the BKT United Rugby Championship title itself, they would qualify automatically for the Investec Champions Cup as URC champions.

In that scenario, Connacht would effectively regain a Champions Cup place despite losing the original top-eight allocation.

That would then create another shift in qualification places, with the side that finished seventh in the table — the Fidelity SecureDrive Lions — dropping into the EPCR Challenge Cup instead.

Why The System Is Causing Confusion

The situation has created considerable confusion among supporters because league finishing position alone no longer guarantees European qualification.

Instead, qualification is now directly tied to a combination of:

• Final URC table positions
• EPCR Challenge Cup winners
• Investec Champions Cup winners
• URC playoff winners

As a result, teams can technically finish inside the top eight and still miss out on Champions Cup rugby depending on results elsewhere.

For Connacht supporters especially, the permutations have added another dramatic layer to an already tense playoff campaign.

The URC is expected to formally confirm all final EPCR qualification places once the remaining European and URC knockout fixtures are completed.

Potential Qualification Scenarios

• Ulster lose Challenge Cup Final: Top eight URC teams qualify normally.
• Ulster win Challenge Cup Final: Ulster qualify for Champions Cup and Connacht drop into Challenge Cup.
• Ulster win Challenge Cup + Connacht win URC: Connacht regain Champions Cup qualification as URC champions, while the Lions would move into the Challenge Cup.

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Ireland’s out-half picture is suddenly one of the most fascinating selection debates in Irish rugby. With the 2027 Rugby World Cup around 16 months away, it is genuinely hard to know which three specialist number 10s will make the final squad.

Jack Crowley still looks like the safest option, but Harry Byrne, Ciaran Frawley, Sam Prendergast, Joey Carbery and the next wave of young Irish out-halves all have a serious chance to change the conversation.

1. Jack Crowley – Munster

Crowley remains the frontrunner. He is the most trusted and proven Irish out-half right now, with the game management, defence and temperament coaches want in big Test matches.

2. Harry Byrne – Leinster

Byrne’s talent has never been doubted. Injuries have often held him back, but the fact he started the 2026 Champions Cup final for Leinster shows the level of trust still placed in him. If he stays fit, he remains a major Ireland contender.

3. Ciaran Frawley – Connacht

Frawley was excellent off the bench in the 2026 Champions Cup final and his move to Connacht could be career-changing. Regular starts at out-half may give him the platform he needs to push hard for Ireland selection.

4. Jack Murphy – Ulster

Murphy is one of the most exciting young out-halves in Ireland. Ulster clearly rate him highly and his confidence, kicking game and attacking instincts make him a serious long-term prospect.

5. Joey Carbery – Leinster

Carbery moving back to Leinster is a huge storyline. At his best, he has the talent to control major games, but injuries and inconsistency have disrupted his career. A fresh start in Dublin could bring him back into the Ireland conversation.

6. Sam Prendergast – Leinster

Prendergast may have the highest ceiling of all the Irish out-halves. His passing range, vision and calmness are exceptional, but he still has to prove his defence and physicality can survive the biggest Test matches.

7. Sean Naughton

Naughton is still developing, but he has enough talent and composure to remain in the wider conversation. Like every young out-half, regular senior minutes will decide how far he can climb.

8. Casper Gabriel – Leinster

Gabriel is another promising Leinster prospect. He is still at an early stage, but Leinster’s production line keeps producing quality out-halves and he is one to watch over the next few seasons.

9. Charlie Tector – Leinster

Tector has long been viewed as a clever and technically strong rugby player. The big challenge is obvious: Leinster’s depth chart is crowded, and he needs senior minutes to push on.

10. Tony Butler

Still early in his senior career, but progressing well. Butler has shown confidence and solid fundamentals, earning his place on the list as another promising Munster-developed 10 with room to grow.

The Big Picture

Right now, Crowley looks the safest bet. Byrne has momentum after starting a Champions Cup final. Frawley’s move to Connacht could unlock him. Carbery’s return to Leinster adds another layer, while Prendergast remains the high-ceiling option who could still force his way in.

Only three are likely to travel to the 2027 Rugby World Cup. With 16 months to go, the race is wide open.

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There is a different feeling around Connacht heading into the 2026/27 season.

For years, supporters have spoken about potential, exciting rugby, dangerous attacking backs, and brave away performances. However, last season showed something more important — resilience. Connacht clawed their way into the URC playoffs with 54 points despite injuries, inconsistency, and periods where qualification looked almost impossible.

Now the challenge changes completely.

This season is no longer about surviving. It is about pushing on.

With Stuart Lancaster now fully embedded, an improved squad, major depth in the pack, and a fixture list that gives Connacht opportunities to build momentum early, expectations in Galway should absolutely rise beyond merely finishing eighth.

The Road To 55 Points

Last season’s URC table showed just how ruthless the league has become. Munster finished on 55 points, Cardiff finished on 55, the Lions finished on 54, Connacht finished on 54, and Ulster missed out on 52.

One win can completely transform a season.

For Connacht, the first target has to be 55+ points. That should be enough to put them firmly in the playoff conversation again.

Realistically, 58 to 60 points would mean a comfortable playoff place, while 62 or more could put Connacht in the battle for a home quarter-final.

Connacht’s 2026/27 Home Fixtures

• Saturday, 5 September — Connacht v Ealing — Pre-season
• Friday, 25 September — Connacht v DHL Stormers
• Friday, 23 October — Connacht v Zebre Parma
• Friday, 30 October — Connacht v Leinster Rugby
• Saturday, 19 December — Connacht v Edinburgh Rugby
• Saturday, 2 January — Connacht v Munster Rugby
• Saturday, 30 January — Connacht v Ulster Rugby
• Friday, 19 March — Connacht v Cardiff Rugby
• Saturday, 27 March — Connacht v Lions
• Saturday, 24 April — Connacht v Dragons RFC

Looking at those fixtures honestly, Connacht should expect to beat Zebre, Dragons, Cardiff, and Edinburgh at home. Anything less than four wins from that group would hurt badly.

Then the key becomes stealing results against Leinster, Munster, Ulster, Stormers, and the Lions. If Connacht can win even three of those five bigger home games, suddenly they are pushing well beyond the playoff line.

How Many Wins By Christmas?

The opening half of the season looks massive.

• Stormers — home
• Benetton — away
• Glasgow Warriors — away
• Zebre Parma — home
• Leinster Rugby — home
• Scarlets — away
• Edinburgh Rugby — home
• Ulster Rugby — away

Connacht should be targeting at least five wins before Christmas, with around 24 to 27 points on the board.

If they manage six wins before Christmas, expectations in Galway will explode.

The Interpros Could Define Everything

Leinster

• Friday, 30 October — Connacht v Leinster
• Saturday, 17 April — Leinster v Connacht

Ulster

• Sunday, 27 December — Ulster v Connacht
• Saturday, 30 January — Connacht v Ulster

Munster

• Saturday, 2 January — Connacht v Munster
• Saturday, 23 January — Munster v Connacht

That January block is brutal. Connacht effectively play Ulster away, Munster home, Munster away, and Ulster home inside five weeks.

Those four games could decide whether Connacht finish fifth or ninth.

Europe Matters Again

• Round 1: 16–18 October
• Round 2: 11–13 December
• Round of 16: 2–4 April
• Quarter Finals: 9–11 April
• Semi Finals: 30 April–2 May
• EPCR Final: 28–30 May

The major difference this year is Connacht finally look capable of rotating properly without the team collapsing. That matters hugely during European windows.

Predicted Strongest Connacht XV

1. Billy Bohan
2. Dylan Tierney-Martin
3. Finlay Bealham
4. Darragh Murray
5. Josh Murphy
6. Cian Prendergast
7. Seamus Hurley-Langton
8. Sean Jansen
9. Ben Murphy
10. Ciaran Frawley
11. Shayne Bolton
12. Cathal Forde
13. Byron Ralston
14. Shane Jennings
15. Sam Gilbert

Key Squad Options

• Sam Illo
• Paul Boyle
• Bundee Aki
• Harry West
• Josh Ioane
• Will Connors
• Dave Heffernan
• Niall Murray
• Sean Naughton
• Colm Reilly
• Mack Hansen
• Jerry Cahir
• Finn Tracey
• François VAN WYK
• Hugh Gavin
• Caolin Blade

The return of Mack Hansen alone changes the ceiling of the entire side. If fully fit, he remains one of the most dangerous attacking players in the URC.

Will Connors could also become one of the smartest signings Connacht have made in years. If injuries stay away, his breakdown work could completely transform close games.

Final Prediction

Connacht fans should stop thinking like underdogs.

This squad is too talented and too experienced to merely sneak into eighth place again.

• Predicted URC finish: 5th–7th
• Predicted points: 58–61
• Target: Champions Cup qualification
• Minimum expectation: URC quarter-final appearance

The biggest difference this year is depth.

Connacht finally look capable of surviving injuries, competing during European weekends, and handling the brutal interpro blocks without collapsing physically.

If Lancaster gets consistency from this squad, and Dexcom Stadium becomes a genuine fortress again, Connacht could become one of the most dangerous teams in the URC by spring 2027.

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