In that same run, they have conceded 197 points, an average of almost 33 points per game, while scoring just over 25 per outing. Four of those six matches saw Connacht ship 30 points or more, including heavy losses away to Dragons and Leinster. The split between home and away form is particularly stark. In their last three matches played away from Galway, Connacht have conceded 117 points, an average losing margin of 19 points.

By contrast, their home games in the same period show a positive points difference, highlighting just how different the side looks once they leave the Dexcom Stadium. That away trend is not new.

Connacht have recorded only one away win in the URC since October 2024, and that solitary success came in Parma, against Zebre, last May.

Every other trip has ended in defeat, often after competitive first halves followed by damaging spells after the break. Zebre’s overall form is poor, with the Italians currently on an eight-match losing run in the URC. However, their home record tells a more balanced story. At Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi this season, Zebre have won four and lost four, a 50 per cent return that stands in sharp contrast to their struggles on the road.

Visiting teams rarely get easy wins in Parma, and matches are typically kept within one or two scores. Historically, this fixture has favoured Connacht. They have won their last eight meetings with Zebre and 11 of their 13 trips to Parma overall. Zebre’s only home wins against Connacht came back in April and December 2017, with none since. Even so, recent meetings have often been tighter than the broader head-to-head suggests, including Connacht’s 22–12 win in Parma last season.

Taken together, the numbers paint a clear picture. Connacht usually handle Zebre, but their recent away performances leave little margin for error. Zebre may be short on confidence, but their home form and Connacht’s travel issues ensure this is a fixture that still demands control, discipline and patience rather than assumption.

Match-up: where it’s actually decided

• Set-piece: Connacht being without Cian Prendergast, Finlay Bealham & Billy Bohan matters. Scrum stability is the quickest way to make an away day miserable.
• Discipline: in Parma, cheap penalties keep Zebre alive and let them play in the right areas.
• Who gets released: the availability of the named Ireland A and Italy squad players could swing the quality level on both sides by a full score.

How it plays out

If Connacht keep this clean, they have enough to win: manage territory, take points when offered, and avoid giving Zebre a cheap platform. If it gets loose — offloads, forced passes, chasing the game — then Connacht’s away wobble becomes the story again.

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